The Rising East
AT A GATHERING of American "China hands" and Chinese "America hands" here several years ago, a former major in the Peoples Liberation Army was puzzled: "Why should the United States care about what happens to Taiwan?" Taiwan question shares
disturbing similarities with
dawn of World War IIIt was a legitimate question, not the usual propaganda ploy of Chinese on this question, and it deserved a considered answer. As one Chinese after another has asserted, Taiwan is the most sensitive issue between the United States and China, which claims sov-ereignty over the island 120 miles off its Pacific coast.
The question is about to come up again as President Bush ponders a request for a long list of weapons that Taiwan has asked to buy. The president's response is due later this month and no matter what he decides, China will protest vigorously. Even so, there appear to be seven reasons that the United States should foster the continued separation of Taiwan from mainland China:
Credibility: If America supports and perhaps even helps to defend Taiwan from an unprovoked attack from the mainland, U.S. allies in South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand and Australia will be reassured that America will keep its commitments; all have security treaties with the United States. If the U.S. abandon's Taiwan, America's allies will lose faith in the United States and will seek to accommodate China, which has been asserting itself as the dominant power in Asia.
Law and politics: The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 mandates that the United States will supply Taiwan with the arms it needs to defend itself. Contrary to some press reports, America is not legally bound to fight for Taiwan but political support for that nation in Congress would require the president to do so.
Strategic location: Taiwan sits astride the two northern exits of the South China Sea, a vital waterway through which pass more ships annually than through the Panama and Suez Canals combined. For Taiwan to fall under the control of a potentially hostile China, which claims most of the South China Sea as territorial waters, would be to give Beijing a stranglehold on the economies of U.S. allies in Asia.
Democracy: Ever since the presidency of Woodrow Wilson during and after World War I, the United States has made the defense of democracy a critical principle in foreign policy. Taiwan, which has seen 75 to 80 percent of its voters turn out in the last three national elections and has executed peaceful transfers of political power, is clearly on the road to democracy.
Self-determination: Another principle Americans have advocated, even if inconsistently applied, has been the right of people to determine their own national fate. In the last 18 months, the Clinton and Bush administrations have demanded that any change in Taiwan's status must have the assent of the people there.
Economics: The United States exports more to Taiwan, a market of 23 million people, than it does to China, with its 1.3 billion people. In 2000, the United States sold $24 billion worth of goods to Taiwan compared with $16 billion to China. That will change if China opens its markets more widely, but U.S. exports to Taiwan will remain valuable, as will a sizeable American investment there.
Technology: Taiwan is the world's third largest supplier of IT (information technology) products, after the United States and Japan. When an earthquake disrupted Taiwan's production in 1999, the world economy felt the shock immediately. A disruption by war would be worse and Chinese control of that technology could be troubling.
Not all Americans, by any means, endorse U.S. support for Taiwan. As one "China hand" put it: "Is a short-term partnership with an island populated by 23 million worth a long-term Cold War with a country of 1.3 billion people?"
That sentiment seems to echo Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain of Britain, who justified his appeasement of the Nazi dictator of Germany, Adolf Hitler, in 1938 by telling the House of Commons: "How horrible, fantastic, incredible it is that we should be digging trenches and trying on gas masks because of a quarrel in a faraway country (Czechoslovakia) between people of whom we know nothing."
Later, Winston Churchill, who was to become Britain's towering leader during World War II, was heard to mutter: "The government had to choose between shame and war. They choose shame and they will get war."
The parallel with the U.S. posture on Taiwan is striking.
Richard Halloran is editorial director of the Star-Bulletin.
He can be reached by e-mail at rhalloran@starbulletin.com