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Asia expert predicts
By Susan Kreifels
no big war but says
states may fail in a
move to democracy
Star-BulletinAsia experts have predicted fragile coalition governments elected this year in Japan and South Korea could slow economic recovery.
And another expert said preventing unstable democracies from failing and determining how to intervene in conflicts like Kosovo will be major challenges in years to come.
"There will not be a major war," said Robert Scalapino of the Institute of East Asia Studies at the University of California, Berkeley. "The problem will be how to handle failing states, and we're just beginning to study that."
While Scalapino said democracy was on the rise and authoritarianism on the decline, "If this creates weak and fragile governments afraid to move, they will lose support."
The experts spoke recently on the political and business outlook for East Asia at the 25th anniversary of the Pacific Forum CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies). The speakers were all on the forum's board of governors.
Hong-Choo Hyun, former ambassador of South Korea to the United States, said that while his country's economy was recovering faster from the Asian economic crisis than elsewhere, "we have clouds on the horizon." In three months South Korea will hold elections for all seats of the national assembly, and the country is in "a strong anti-incumbent mood." He predicted no party will get a majority of seats.
If President Kim Dae-jung does not have a strong coalition backing him, his programs for economic recovery in the last three years of his presidency will face difficulties, the ambassador said.
On a more positive note, he said North Korea was more eager to improve relations with the United States and more open to investment from South Korea, both signs the reclusive country could start to move out of its isolation.
Yoshio Okawara, former Japanese ambassador to the United States, said his country faces similar political problems to South Korea. Parliamentary elections will be held some time this year, and Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi's popularity has fallen and his fiscal policies have come under attack. Obuchi's coalition government will be unable to control the upper house, he predicted.
Scalapino said future developments in China will have the biggest world impact in the 21st century. He said massive unemployment was the major difficulty.
"It's destined to be a major power with a major problem," he said.
He also predicted authoritarianism will prevail in China because to leaders there, political stability was the only path to economic development. "China is not on the verge of democracy."
