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We're not even past the 2000 election and political junkies already are speculating about the 2002 race for governor. Governor’s race
gets under wayGov. Ben Cayetano set off the latest buzz when he said he'll support Honolulu Mayor Jeremy Harris for re-election this year, but favors Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono to succeed him in two years if she and Harris face off for governor.
Cayetano owes Harris his backing for mayor after Harris gave up a run for governor two years ago to campaign for Cayetano against Linda Lingle. But their long animosity likely will return as their interests diverge in future elections.
Whether Cayetano's endorsement is worth anything two years from now will depend on the health of the economy and his success in reforming state government.
A 2002 gubernatorial match of Hirono and Harris in the Democratic primary with the winner facing Republican Lingle is intriguing. It's encouraging that all three have a solid core of ardent supporters, which must mean there's something to like about each of them.
Hirono goes in with a couple of advantages: Hawaii's last three governors have been promoted from lieutenant governor and she likely would have the support of the Democratic establishment that has had its way in Hawaii elections for 45 years.
But that could turn out to be as much a curse as a blessing if Cayetano's reforms fail. Many voters question whether the lieutenant governor's office is the best place to find future governors -- and whether Democrats have held power long enough. Hirono has no administrative record to suggest she can run the state government.
What you have to like about Hirono is the passion of her beliefs. She's an unrepentant liberal -- a decent and honorable label that Democrats have run from like scared puppies since the Reagan administration. Even if you don't agree with her, you have to respect that she has strong core values and the integrity to stick up for them.
We can't yet say the same about Harris and Lingle. They're both management wonks who believe in efficient government and are tough to pin down beyond that. You can get away with that as mayor, but voters want to know what a governor stands for.
Lingle's failure to define herself to voters that way probably cost her the governorship in 1998. She dodged questions about what kind of Republican she was, thinking she was just being pragmatic in a Democratic state. But it left people uneasy about the strength of her values.
Similarly, Harris has never given us a good fix on what he stands for. Talk to him awhile and all you're sure of is that he believes in good engineering.
But what Harris and Lingle have going for them is that they've been fine mayors. They have what Hirono lacks: proven administrative ability. Sure Harris is sometimes high-handed with the City Council. But with that haplessly dysfunctional bunch, what choice does he have if he wants to get anything done? Lingle has an infectious "can do" attitude and works well with others.
All three have tests between now and 2002. Hirono, who has been invisible in the first six years of the Cayetano administration, must step forward and convince people she can lead. Harris must establish his strength by winning re-election convincingly against possibly tough competition from the estimable Councilman Mufi Hannemann. And Lingle, as GOP chairwoman, must move the Republican Party forward in this year's election or risk losing credibility as a big-game player.
David Shapiro is managing editor of the Star-Bulletin.
He can be reached by e-mail at editor@starbulletin.com.
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