Editorials
Wednesday, November 25, 1998

The Pentagon’s pledge
to keep forces in Asia

FOR obvious reasons, Hawaii residents are more sensitive to developments in Asia than other Americans. Thus the Defense Department announcement that it is committed to keeping 100,000 troops in Asia even if the North Korean threat is resolved should receive more than casual interest here. A new Pentagon security review of the region, the fourth East Asia Strategy Report, repeatedly affirms the 100,000-troop levelfor the foreseeable future. A top defense official confirmed that the commitment goes beyond current concerns over North Korean nuclear weapons development.

U.S. forces can exert a stabilizing influence, and the need for such an influence remains. Defense Secretary William Cohen observed that Asia is not as confident as it was in 1995, when the last strategy report was issued. The military presence, he said, "helps us to shape events, to respond to crises, and to prepare for an uncertain future."

The deputy assistant secretary of defense, Franklin Kramer, noted that "there was a time, maybe four years ago, when those countries weren't sure whether we would stay. We have made very clear to them that we do want to stay, and they've made very clear to us...that they want us to stay even after a change in Korea." This is reassuring, particularly in view of opposition on Okinawa to the continued presence of U.S. forces and the earlier relinquishment of bases in the Philippines.

The collapse of the Soviet Union has not eliminated the value of a military presence in Asia. North Korea continues to pose a threat to South Korea and, with its development of medium-range missiles, even to Japan.

China's military strength is growing and Beijing still refuses to rule out the use of force against Taiwan. China also is involved in a dispute over tiny islands in the South China Sea.

India and Pakistan have conducted nuclear weapons tests. Several governments fear a Japanese military buildup in the event that the United States pulls out. The Asian economic crisis has created unstable conditions, particularly in Indonesia.

The report reaffirms U.S. alliances with Japan, Korea, Australia, Thailand, and the Philippines. It refers to continued comprehensive engagement with China and continued dialogue with North Korea on nuclear and missile development.

Someday, perhaps, American forces will no longer be needed in Asia and will be withdrawn. But that day has not arrived; in fact it isn't in sight. Until that time comes the armed forces must maintain their presence in Asia -- as well as backup forces and facilities in Hawaii.

Cigarette prices

CIGARETTE smokers soon will feel the brunt of the $206 billion tobacco industry's settlement with Hawaii and 45 other states, in the form of price increases. Some analysts predicted the biggest cigarette tax hike in history, as Philip Morris USA and R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co. raised wholesale levels by 45 cents a pack. The crucial question is how many smokers will be motivated by the additional expense to abandon the habit, and how many teen-agers will be discouraged from beginning.

Studies have shown that the deterrent effect of raising cigarette prices is strong when the increases are significant. Every 10 percent increase is said to result in a 7 percent reduction in the number of adolescents who begin smoking. Researchers have found little effect when increases are 7 percent or less.

The 45-cent increase is substantial. If passed on to consumers, it could raise the average retail price in the country to $2.45 a pack. In Hawaii, it would raise the cost to more than $3.50 a pack and bring the cost of a carton for most brands to nearly $30.

While the cigarette industry has absorbed some cost increases in the past through competitive discounting on the wholesale level, such a strategy will be more difficult this time. Producers announced wholesale price increases of 20 cents a pack to reflect the earlier settlement of lawsuits with Florida, Minnesota, Mississippi and Texas. Some makers did not pass on those increases through all their brands in order to gain advantage over rival brands. Doing so again may be more difficult.

As cigarette prices keep rising, smokers are given a financial incentive to consider less expensive nicotine patches and gums that have proved effective in helping people kick the habit. Teen-agers should recognize that starting to smoke is foolish for both health and financial reasons.

Haleakala cycling

STRONGER danger warnings seem in order for bicycling down Haleakala. A fatal accident last month -- the first since bicycle tours began in the mid-1980s -- has prompted officials of Haleakala National Park to review the situation.

It's a steep ride down the mountain from 9,700 feet, with hairpin turns. Park officials have recorded 117 accidents -- an average of one every two days -- from Jan. 1 through Oct. 31. Of these, 12.8 percent required basic life support and included broken bones; 6.8 percent required advanced life support.

Tour operators must provide insurance and a helmet for cyclists. A guide leads the tour and a van brings up the rear. Guides are required to have radio communications.

Kerry Buck, emergency services coordinator at the park, said a preliminary review shows no problems with the conduct of the tour companies. But the ride is risky, he notes, and accidents will occur. He said, "We have some comments from some people: 'Gee, if I knew, I would never have done this.' "

Evidently some people don't realize what they are getting into when they sign up for the ride. That suggests the tour companies should be required to make sure their customers fully understand the hazards of the trip.

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Rupert E. Phillips, CEO

John M. Flanagan, Editor & Publisher

David Shapiro, Managing Editor

Diane Yukihiro Chang, Senior Editor & Editorial Page Editor

Frank Bridgewater & Michael Rovner, Assistant Managing Editors

A.A. Smyser, Contributing Editor