Voters like
Lingle’s ads
better

Poll also indicates that
voters prefer Hirono over Koki
for lieutenant governor

By Richard Borreca
Star-Bulletin

If ads make the governor, it appears Linda Lingle has the edge to get into Washington Place.

A poll taken for the Honolulu Star-Bulletin and KHNL-TV Oct. 16-19, shows that voters consider Lingle's ads to be the most effective by 2-to-1.

When asked by pollsters with Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research of Columbia, Md., who they thought had the most effective ad campaign, Lingle won 53 percent to 27 percent.

Campaign expense reports filed by Cayetano show that he has spent $1.5 million on preparing and running print, radio and television ads.

Lingle has spent nearly as much -- $1.3 million, according to her campaign expense lists.

Campaign reports show that Cayetano has raised $4.6 million for this campaign, while Lingle has collected $3.1 million.

Kitty Lagareta, Lingle's communications director, credits the positive results to the sort of ads Lingle has run.

"She stuck to her issues, if you look at her ads they haven't been negative attacks, they have been about her message, changes that need to be, they have been real consistent," Lagareta said.

Rick Humphries, Cayetano's campaign co-chairman, said the lastest round of Cayetano ads have been much more effective than the early ones, but people may be reacting to a general perception of Cayetano's media campaign.

"Our ads over the last few weeks have been very good, they have been very specific and to the point," he said.

Earlier commercials by Cayetano may not have been popular with viewers, Humphries said.

But Humphries, like Lagareta, said the newspaper, radio and television ads were only a small part of the campaign with both candidates working grass-roots contacts in the final weeks of the race.

A careful look at the responses shows that those who say they are Democrats split, with 40 percent liking Lingle and Cayetano ads.

Lingle's ads, are actually the most popular with all ethnic groups including Caucasian, Japanese, Filipinos and Hawaiians.

All that, however, doesn't automatically translate into universal approval, because while 70 percent of the Cayetano supporters say they like the Cayetano ads better than the Lingle ads, 90 percent of the Lingle backers like her ads.

On the larger question of who has presented the best vision for where they want to lead Hawaii, Lingle wins by 19 percentage points: 49 percent to 30 percent, with 21 percent undecided.

Cayetano scores highest with Americans of Japanese ancestry, where half of those surveyed give him the thumbs up.

He scores lowest among Hawaiian voters, only 14 percent say he has the best vision for Hawaii.

Cayetano has stressed in his campaign that he has a specific plan for Hawaii's future, while Lingle is blurring her details.

The poll results show that Caucasians and Hawaiians give Lingle the biggest show of support, with 65 percent of both groups saying they think Lingle has the best vision for the state.

Interestingly, Filipino-American voters give only a slight nod to Cayetano's vision, preferring him to Lingle by a 37 percent to 31 percent over Lingle.

Cayetano's supporters do not appear as solidly enthusiastic about their candidate as Lingle supporters.

For instance, more than two-thirds of those who say they will vote for Lingle say she has the best idea of where to lead the state. But just half of those who say they will vote for Cayetano say he has the best vision.

The poll also shows that voters are starting to make up their minds about who they will vote for.

In August, a similar poll showed 29 percent of those surveyed to be either very likely or somewhat likely to change their mind about who they would vote for.

But the poll taken last week shows those numbers are firming up, with only 14 percent saying they are somewhat or very likely to change their minds.

And other than those who describe themselves as being "not at all likely to change their mind," the number has risen from 44 percent to 68 percent.

Cayetano, Lingle speak at Farrington Saturday Gubernatorial candidates Ben Cayetano and Linda Lingle are scheduled to speak to delegates of the Faith Action for Community Equity founding convention at Farrington High School Saturday. The candidates will be asked about their positions on affordable long-term care health insurance, the renovation of Kalihi Valley Homes, and a requirement that businesses that receive incentives and contracts from state government give residents the first chance for new job openings.

---

Almost half polled said
they would choose Hirono

By Richard Borreca
Star-Bulletin

Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono appears to be a valuable asset for Cayetano's re-election campaign.

A new statewide poll shows that if voters were able to vote separately for lieutenant governor, almost half would pick Hirono.

The poll was conducted among 425 registered voters statewide by telephone Oct. 16-19 by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc. of Columbia, MD. The margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

According to the state Constitution, voters select an individual candidate for lieutenant governor in the primary election, but in the general the candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run as a team.

According to the poll, Stan Koki would get 35 percent of the vote, compared to 47 for Hirono, the incumbent Democrat. Seventeen percent of those surveyed say they are undecided.

In the primary election, Hirono was one of the more popular Democrats running. She got 99,490 votes with only token opposition from Nancy Cook, who got 12,154.

She should be a help to Cayetano, who in the primary election pulled in 95,795 votes.

In contrast, Koki, a former state senator, who ran unsuccessfully for lieutenant governor four years ago, this time got 69,546 votes to Mike Liu's 56,937.

Koki, however, doesn't appear to have the across-the-board strength that Hirono shows.

For instance, while Koki is viewed favorably by 40 percent of the Republican voters, Hirono gets the nods from nearly 60 percent of the Democrats.

She gets a favorable rating from 44 percent of the men and 40 percent of the women voters, while Koki scores approval ratings of 31 percent for men and 30 percent for women.

Democrats, however, appear not to have a solid picture of Koki as 27 percent view him favorably, 28 percent unfavorably and 30 are neutral.

Koki gets his strongest support among Caucasian voters, while Hirono scores highest with Japanese-Americans, 56 percent and Filipino-Americans, 45 percent.

Hirono says Koki won't meet her in TV debate Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono today charged that GOP challenger Stan Koki has repeatedly declined to meet her in a televised debate. But Juliana Lareaux, Koki's spokeswoman, denied Hirono's charge, saying the two have appeared on the same platform and that Hirono is "just trying to divert attention from the real issue, which is the economy." Hirono cited Koki's decision not to appear on a proposed debate on Sunday. But Lareaux said Koki was committed to other campaign appearances and unable to appear on TV on such short notice. Lareaux said the candidates have shared the same televised platform on two stations and Hirono ducked a chance for a debate on a forum sponsored by the Small Business Association.