Lingle’s popularity
still high, poll finds

Cayetano shows slight gains in
his favorable ratings, but he is still
seen negatively by many

Mike Yuen
Star-Bulletin

As the gubernatorial campaign heads into the final stretch, Republican nominee Linda Lingle continues to make a more favorable impression on Hawaii's voters than Democratic incumbent Ben Cayetano.

But while Cayetano remains less popular, more people are viewing him positively, but not in significant numbers.

Those are key trends revealed by the latest Honolulu Star-Bulletin/NBC Hawaii News 8 Poll, which also found that voters remain unimpressed with Cayetano's job performance. Only 37 percent believe that Cayetano has done an excellent or good job in managing the state, the same percentage from two months ago.

Lingle's latest favorable rating of 53 percent -- compared with Cayetano's 35 percent -- comes at a time when the state Democratic Party is demanding that Lingle be prosecuted criminally for "recklessly" breaking her promise to the state to abide by voluntary campaign spending limits. The error, the Lingle campaign said, was "a simple mistake made by a volunteer treasurer."

Cayetano campaign officials and state Democratic Party Chairman Walter Heen raised the specter of possible criminal wrongdoing by Lingle just a few days before the latest statewide survey for the Star-Bulletin began Oct 16. Over a four-day period, 425 registered voters were interviewed by telephone by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc. of Columbia, Md. The margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The poll also reveals that just as Lingle's favorable rating has outpaced Cayetano's since the start of the year, Cayetano's unfavorable rating continues to top Lingle's. In March, 36 percent of voters viewed Cayetano negatively, compared with 13 percent for Lingle. Now, it is 39 percent who see Cayetano unfavorably, compared with 21 percent for Lingle.

"I'm pleased the public seems to much prefer Linda Lingle to Ben Cayetano," said Lingle campaign spokesman Randy Roth, a University of Hawaii law professor. "I'm hopeful that the poll that really counts, the one on Nov. 3, is going to give us a new governor."

Voters appear to appreciate that Lingle has focused on key issues, such as how to improve the isles' stagnant economy, Roth said. "I think the public is disappointed in the Cayetano campaign's reaction to the overspending issue," he added.

Last week, the state Campaign Spending Commission referred the Democrats' complaint to city Prosecutor Peter Carlisle.

State GOP counsel Rick Clifton has said that when Lingle returned $136,229 in public funds after exceeding the $1.36 million limit for the primary, she acted differently than Cayetano when he was in a similar situation. Cayetano exceeded the spending limit in his first gubernatorial campaign in 1994, but he kept $312,000 in public funds by reclassifying campaign expenditures as fund-raising expenses, Clifton said.

Ann Kobayashi, a Cayetano campaign co-chairwoman, said the governor's unimpressive numbers are due to his having to make unpopular decisions during his first term. Those decisions included worker layoffs and proposing an increase to the 4 percent general excise tax as a way to offset cuts in personal and corporate incomes taxes. Cayetano is touting the fact that the last fiscal year, which concluded June 30, ended with a cash balance of $154 million.

"He tries to do what's right," Kobayashi said, adding that the governor is highly regarded for his honesty and integrity.

Kobayashi said she doesn't see how the electorate isn't more concerned about Lingle's campaign overspending. "It's like if you rob a bank," she said. "If you return the money afterward, that doesn't mean you didn't commit the crime."

The Cayetano campaign's own internal polls indicate that he and Lingle are in a close race, Kobayashi added.

The poll also found that Democratic Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono continues to make a more favorable impression than her boss, Cayetano. Hirono's favorable rating of 42 percent is 7 percentage points higher than Cayetano's. Two months ago, it was 40 percent for Hirono, 10 percentage points higher than the governor's.

Stan Koki, Lingle's running mate, has the lowest favorable rating of anyone on the gubernatorial tickets -- 31 percent. But the combined favorable ratings of Lingle and Koki is 84 percent, 7 percentage points higher than the combined Cayetano-Hirono score.

Cayetano is viewed most favorably by isle voters of Japanese and Filipino ancestry; Lingle's highest favorable ratings come from Caucasians, Hawaiians and voters of mixed ancestry.

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Abercrombie positive
rating tops Ward’s

Abercrombie, Ward debate

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By Mike Yuen
Star-Bulletin

Democratic U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie is viewed favorably by 45 percent of the voters in the 1st Congressional District, while 30 percent see Republican challenger Gene Ward in a positive light.

The latest Honolulu Star-Bulletin/NBC Hawaii News 8 Poll also found that Ward, a four-term state representative, has not generated much more of a positive impression since the last statewide survey was taken two months ago. Back then, Abercrombie was viewed favorably by 41 percent of district voters; Ward, 28 percent.

The latest survey results are based on telephone interviews with 221 registered voters in the 1st Congressional District (urban Honolulu) by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc. of Columbia, Md., during the four-day period that ended Oct. 19. The margin of error is plus or minus 6.9 percentage points.

The poll also found that Abercrombie was viewed unfavorably by 36 percent of voters, a drop of 5 percentage points from two months ago. For Ward, it was 19 percent, an increase of 9 percentage points.

"We would like our favorable rating to be higher, but we're pleased with it," said Abercrombie campaign spokeswoman Tina Yamamoto. "Our negatives are going down because people are looking at Neil's record."

The numbers also suggest that voters are brushing off "the extremely personal attacks Gene has been airing," Yamamoto said.

Ward said he took comfort in that 50 percent of voters were neutral about him or did not know who he was since Abercrombie's TV spots were portraying him as a "polluter."

"He's trying to buy the election by not talking about the economy, how to get the economy back to work," Ward said, referring to Abercrombie.

Ward has made reforming the Jones Act the centerpiece of his campaign. The law requires cargo shipped between Hawaii and other U.S. ports to be carried on ships built, flagged, owned and operated by U.S. citizens. Eliminating that restriction could save every isle family about $1,000, Ward said.

Abercrombie's message is that he continues to work to improve the economy and the education of isle youths, and to protect of Social Security.