A Star-Bulletin editorial page column on Election Day 1994, published before the votes were counted, opened this way: "Tonight we will know who our next governor is. I predict, unfortunately with confidence, that he or she will face the toughest four years since statehood." Both Cayetano, Lingle
worthy candidatesThe column went on to list some of the pending challenges:
Sugar and pineapple in decline...military spending shrinking...joblessness higher than the national average and headed higher...militancy in the Hawaiian sovereignty movement threatening our unwritten social contract to try to settle ethnic differences peaceably...the real estate market in a free fall...fierce resistance to tax increases even for desirable social programs...entrenched unions resisting desirable changes in education...an entrenched government bureaucracy that shrinks the power of our so-called strong-governor system by resisting change and letting governors know that "we'll be here when you are gone."
The column was written by me, and reads quite well in retrospect.
That night Ben Cayetano emerged the winner over Pat Saiki and Frank Fasi with a plurality but not a majority.
He is a tough and honest guy and tried mightily. But my 1994 predicton can be repeated, with modifications, for the 1998-2002 governor's term, which may or may not be his.
Our No. 1 industry, tourism, seemed to have steadied in 1994 but since then has been hit by the recession in Japan, the source of nearly half of our tourist dollars.
Military spending hasn't declined as much as feared. However, it has few growth prospects outside of capital spending projects that flow from an intention to maintain Hawaii as a key base in the Pacific.
Governor Cayetano tried to trim the government bureaucracy but has been reduced to saying he slowed its growth. He wasn't able to sell a general excise tax increase as part of an economic stimulation program recommended by a task force he convened.
He did win greater autonomy for the University of Hawaii, a somewhat longer public school teaching year, assured state funds for tourist promotion with semi-independent oversight, and modest steps toward privatization but not the big ones urged by county mayors.
The Hawaiian Homes program has made real progress. Sovereignty advocates have softened their approach since 1994 but major issues with the potential for busting the state's budget and capping private land development remain unresolved.
New on the crisis scene is the economic collapse known as the Asian flu that is far from cured. The "Pacific Century" is deferred. Major investment in tourism by outside developers also has been deferred, and our biggest banks and landed estates are investing outside Hawaii rather than here.
My "tough and honest" evaluation of Cayetano was mentioned in some of his early campaign ads this year.
But I also have written that I consider his Nov. 3 opponent, Linda Lingle, to be clear-thinking, straight-talking and straight-shooting. It is sad to see the governor joining in Frank Fasi's cheap shot at her for not carrying her home county, Maui, in the primary when our open primary law encouraged Maui voters to take Democratic ballots that day because that's where the big county contests were -- for mayor, council and the Legislature.
I will be sorry for whichever candidate loses Nov. 3. Both are worthy. But I have usually voted Republican in the past to help build a strong second party.
The need for change is stronger this year than at any time since the Democrats took over 36 years ago. Lingle, with her ability to articulate issues clearly and to cooperate with "foes," may have a better chance than Cayetano to achieve it.
A.A. Smyser is the contributing editor
and former editor of the the Star-Bulletin
His column runs Tuesday and Thursday.