LINDA Lingle fans hoping she will be elected governor Nov. 3 should heed the lesson Republicans got in 1990. That year the contest for the U.S. Senate seat from Hawaii was between Daniel Akaka, Democrat, and Patricia Saiki, Republican. Each served in the lower house of Congress and each aspired to replace deceased Democratic Sen. Spark Matsunaga. Lingle can’t afford
to be complacentAkaka had the edge of having been appointed interim senator by Gov. John Waihee. But polls from mid-summer on showed the race nearly even.
In October President George Bush came to Hawaii to speak for Saiki, whose extra vote in the Senate could be important to the GOP. Bush gilded the visit for Saiki by announcing he would suspend the use of Kahoolawe for military target practice. The national Democrats wheeled in Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy to talk for Akaka.
On election eve, the Star-Bulletin headlined that its poll showed the race still too close to call. Surprise! Akaka won by 56-44 percent, a very hefty margin.
It might be explained as simply bad polling, but I think there was another factor that should concern Lingle.
The Democratic grass-roots organization in 1990 was far more extensive than that of the Republicans. Governor Waihee was running for re-election that year and had his own strong grass-roots following. It had ambushed Congressman Cecil Heftel in the Democratic primary four years earlier.
Couple that with the campaign organizations of other Democratic office-holders statewide. Add to the mix labor unions heavily in support of Democrats. Put all available manpower to work staffing telephone banks and taking people out to vote.
Then season the recipe with the popularity of Hawaii's senior senator, Daniel K. Inouye, not up for election that year, but always ready to support the ticket.
Urge all concerned to support the entire top of the ticket on Election Day and wondrous things can happen -- even a several-point voter shift in the final days.
The symbolic end of the Democratic campaign is a unity rally in Hilo on election eve. All of the top contenders were there in 1990 endorsing each other: Akaka for senator. Neil Abercrombie and Patsy Mink for Congress. Waihee and Ben Cayetano for re-election as governor and lieutenant governor. It was true-blue politics and it worked. The others won by even bigger margins than Akaka.
Lingle and the Republicans can be sure of another last-hour Democratic unity call, phone banks and Hilo rally this year. Can they match it? Probably not, but they might dull its edge.
There are more Republicans on the ballot than in 1990 -- fewer legislative seats left uncontested. Signs so far have shown a pickup in attendance at GOP rallies. We even have for the first time a couple of former Democrats converted to the GOP in legislative races and a prominent University of Hawaii professor actively beating the drums for Lingle. And the neighbor islands no longer are so solidly Democratic as they once were.
UNIONS remain heavily pro-Democratic. And they have the manpower to see that their followers vote. But will they be countered or helped this year by the new activism to turn out same-sex marriage voters? Or by an enhanced Hawaiian turnout coming to choose five Office of Hawaiian Affairs trustees but handed general election ballots as well?
Lingle obviously has a chance, maybe a very good chance. But if I were Lingle I wouldn't relax even if the polls showed me leading 60-40 on Election eve.
A.A. Smyser is the contributing editor
and former editor of the the Star-Bulletin
His column runs Tuesday and Thursday.