WELCOME to the first week of the real campaign for governor. This is the time when all your political reflexes tell you that now everything can be explained in the context of the governor's race. Voter turnout is
crucial but mysteriousFootball scores portend voter turnout. The pigskin calculus includes the fact that the University of Hawaii football team will be on the mainland, but the evening has an ILH triple-header at the stadium. Are high school football fans voters? Are they Democrats or Republicans?
We don't know, but be assured that someone in the camps of Ben Cayetano, Linda Lingle and Frank Fasi is thinking about it.
Parades, high surf and religious holidays are all tossed into the mix to figure out the all-important voter turnout.
Part of the equation must be how the storm of controversy surrounding President Clinton will influence voter turnout.
Will Democrats be turned off by Clinton's White House behavior and months of lying about it, or will they just shrug and go to the polls anyway?
The Rev. Frank Chong, executive director of the Waikiki Health Center and author of the Legislative Action Yellow Pages, has watched elections for two decades. He says if voters want to protest, they will do it by staying home.
"The biggest problem is not distrust, it is disinterest," Chong explained.
Voter turnout will be an interesting measure in the primary election 10 days from now, but it will be absolutely critical in the general election.
As Chong recalls, part of Hawaii Democrats' 40 years of success is due to their ability to stage the last-minute rally, combine forces, put the campaign workers out on the street and walking the critical districts.
Will the disenchantment with Clinton make it more difficult this year?
Chong argues that because Hawaii is so far from Washington and bedeviled with its own concerns that is not a big deal.
Others, however, will argue that it won't make it any easier to get Democrats to turn out.
Things could go dramatically worse for Clinton. Impeachment proceedings, once thought outlandish speculation, are now gaining credibility. Important allies in Congress are standing aside and Clinton has completely squandered his moral authority to lead.
As public opinion polls show Cayetano trailing, the governor will need to show a united front in November. Voter turnout will be critical, but there are at least some post-Labor Day indications that Democrats will have problems holding their supporters together.
HERE'S an addendum to last week's column about the unexplored costs of the state's budget.
Maui Sen. Roz Baker, co-chairwoman of the Ways and Means Committee, said the state budget didn't include the cost for public school teachers to work an extra seven days, as required by their new labor contract.
In fact, the state did include costs to pay the school teachers, but Baker notes the other costs to run the schools for seven days were not included. No extra money for lights, school aides, cafeteria workers, security guards and even janitors.
The public schools will just have to make up that shortfall.
A spokesman for the Department of Education added that the state budget failed to include several important cost items, but the schools would have to design a budget around the shortfalls.
Richard Borreca reports on Hawaii's politics every Wednesday.
He can be reached by e-mail at rborreca@pixi.com