Lingle holding lead
in governor’s race

Favorable ratings are up for her,
Cayetano and Fasi, but the Maui mayor's
overall numbers are better

By Craig Gima
Star-Bulletin

Attacks on gubernatorial candidate Linda Lingle's record as Maui mayor do not appear to have affected public opinion about her.

Many of the attacks came in television and newspaper ads run by her Republican opponent, Frank Fasi.

But the results of the latest Honolulu Star-Bulletin/NBC Hawaii News 8 Poll show that her unfavorable rating is 15 percent, about the same as in the last poll, taken in June.

Her overall favorable rating is 55 percent, up slightly from June.

Gov. Ben Cayetano said he was not surprised that Fasi's ads have not had an effect.

"His (Fasi's) attacks have been really poorly done," Cayetano said. "Nobody has really questioned her (Lingle's) record. I'm amazed at the honeymoon she has had with the press, and that's one reason why she's in the position she is in. Nobody has questioned her record."

Republican Party Chairwoman Donna Alcantara said she is pleased by Lingle's poll numbers.

"At this point in July (1994), Pat Saiki's poll numbers were starting to dip, and Linda's are steady and rising," she said.

All three major candidates showed growth in their favorable ratings, but Lingle is the only candidate with higher favorable than unfavorable numbers.

Cayetano's favorable rating is 30 percent, up from 27 percent in June.

His unfavorable rating is 36 percent, down from 42 percent in June.

Fasi's favorable rating is also up, 23 percent compared with 20 percent in June. His unfavorable rating dropped from 56 percent.

A closer look at Lingle's support shows she is strong in most ethnic and economic groups.

Union members, a traditional source of Democratic votes, also see Lingle favorably.

Her favorable rating of 43 percent among union families is equal to Cayetano's. But her unfavorable rating of 29 percent among union members is higher than the governor's.

Among ethnic groups, Caucasians and Hawaiians gave her a high percentage of favorable ratings.

Even among Filipinos, Lingle had a slightly higher favorable rating than Cayetano.

But more Japanese and Filipinos have an unfavorable opinion of Lingle than other ethnic groups do.

Japanese, Hawaiians and Filipinos also have the highest percentage of those neutral about both Cayetano and Lingle.

Men appear to support Lingle more than women do, although her favorable rating is higher than Cayetano's among both genders.

Cayetano's support appears to be strongest among Japanese residents and Democrats.

The poll surveyed 417 registered voters by telephone Aug. 4-7. It was conducted by Mason Dixon Political/Media Research of Columbia, Md.

The margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

---

Straying Democrats could
decide governor’s race

Unfavorable ratings slam Cayetano
over Lingle, a Star-Bulletin poll finds

By Craig Gima
Star-Bulletin

People who are being called "bungee cord Democrats" may hold the key to victory in the governor's race.

Don Clegg, who has conducted polls for Gov. Ben Cayetano's campaign, coined the term to describe Democrats who have jumped from Cayetano toward Republican gubernatorial candidate Linda Lingle.

Clegg believes those Democrats are reaching the bottom of a hypothetical bungee cord.

"Right now they're in the Lingle camp, but the attraction will pull many of them back (to Cayetano)," he said.

An analysis of the Honolulu Star-Bulletin/NBC Hawaii News 8 Poll shows Lingle does have significant support among those who consider themselves Democrats.

The poll analysis also shows that Republicans and others who have a favorable opinion of Lingle say they are not likely to change their votes, while a large number of Democrats and those who give Cayetano a favorable rating are still undecided.

Among Democrats, Lingle's favorable rating of 41 percent is about equal to Cayetano, who has a 42 percent favorable rating among members of his own party.

In his own party, Cayetano has a 25 percent unfavorable rating -- higher than Lingle's 20 percent unfavorable rating among all Democrats surveyed.

Weak Democrats may stray

A University of Hawaii political science professor who also conducts political polls said he is not surprised Democrats are wavering.

"When a person switches from Democratic to Republican, they go from strong Democrat to weak and then to Republican," said Yasumasa Kuroda. "You don't jump too far all at once, but you go step by step."

Kuroda believes the Democrats who are wavering are beginning to move toward Lingle.

"That's why Gov. Cayetano should try to keep the Democrats in his camp," Kuroda said.

"There's no sense for him to appeal to strong Republicans, but he can appeal to Democrats who are now leaning toward Republican."

State Republican Party Chairwoman Donna Alcantara believes Lingle will keep the Democrats who have crossed over.

"Many of the Democrats who have crossed over want change and are disappointed and frustrated that their party hasn't been able to deliver," she said.

Switches cost Saiki 2 races

Kuroda said Democrats switching back cost Republican Pat Saiki a seat in the U.S. Senate in 1990 and the governorship in 1994.

"In both instances it was largely due to the Democratic Party unity efforts plus the Republican candidate's failure to see the mistakes they were making," he said.

In 1990, Kuroda believes Saiki made a fatal mistake by holding public fund-raising events with Republican President George Bush and Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole.

"Democrats don't want to be identified with someone who is a mainstream Republican," he said.

Kuroda believes unless Lingle makes a similar mistake, it will be difficult for the Democrats to win this year.

Appeal to traditional values

Cayetano campaign Co-Chairman Mike McCartney agrees that bringing Democrats back to the fold is key to Cayetano's re-election hopes.

He believes many of the Democrats supporting Lingle are the children and grandchildren of those who struggled to bring the party to power in the 1950s.

They are people like Earl Nakazaki, who works for a termite company and used to work in construction.

"A lot of my friends have left the islands because they were in construction and they can't support their families," he said.

As a kid growing up in Kaneohe, Nakazaki said he looked up to Democratic politicians, especially U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye.

"At that time, my father used to mention for a Japanese American to stand up in such a way that you could make a change was really impressive," he said.

Since then Nakazaki's opinion of politicians has changed.

"Many of the others (elected officials) that followed are just lousy," he lamented.

McCartney said the campaign is trying to educate people on Cayetano's accomplishments and appeal to traditional Democratic values to win back Democratic votes.

"I think it's about taking the values and principles that Democrats have for social justice and equality into the next millennium and intertwining that with economic development," he said.

"We cannot forget that Hawaii is not just about money and economics. It's about quality of life."

Nakazaki said he's probably going to vote for Lingle and is not likely to change his mind.

He is among the 70 percent of the voters surveyed who said they have just about made up their minds about whom to vote for and are not likely to change before Election Day.

Most Republicans, 86 percent, have decided whom they are going to vote for. But about 42 percent of the Democrats surveyed said it is likely they may change their minds.

About 24 percent of those who do not identify themselves with a party are likely or somewhat likely to change their minds about whom to vote for.

But the independents seem to be leaning toward Lingle.

About 58 percent of those surveyed give Lingle high favorable marks, compared to a 19 percent favorable rating for Cayetano among independents.

The poll was conducted among 417 registered voters by telephone Aug. 4-7 by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc. The margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The margin of error can be higher for the smaller samplings used in analyzing the results of the full poll.

Liu, Koki have recognition
problems, according to poll

The Republican candidates for lieutenant governor have a bit of a problem to overcome with just over a month left before the primary election.

Many people don't know who they are.

The Honolulu Star-Bulletin/

NBC Hawaii News 8 Poll shows more than half of the registered voters surveyed do not recognize the name of former state Sen. Michael Liu and 42 percent do not know former state Sen. Stan Koki.

Both are hoping to win the second spot on the GOP ticket.

Even among those who identify themselves as Republicans, 28 percent did not recognize Liu's name, and 27 percent did not know Koki.

About 10 percent of those surveyed did not recognize the name of current Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono.

Rep. Gene Ward, who is running for the 1st Congressional District seat, also has a problem with name recognition.

About 23 percent of those surveyed do not know who he is, compared with only 3 percent who do not recognize his Republican opponent, Rep. Quentin Kawananakoa.

Ward is still doing better than the last poll in June when 43 percent of those surveyed did not know his name.

The poll also shows Kawananakoa has a 46 percent favorable rating -- 5 points higher than Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie.

Abercrombie also has high unfavorable numbers, with 41 percent of those surveyed having an unfavorable opinion of him.