SOMEWHERE in this year's governor's race is the boredom factor. Not that the governor's race is boring; it is the best Hawaii has been treated to in more than a decade. But there is boredom with the Democratic primary. Democratic primary
lacks excitementGranted there are some isolated pockets of hot races on a legislative level. The Big Island should have contests both in Hilo and Kohala Senate districts. Also Maui has an interesting Senate race, as does the Windward side of Oahu.
But, unlike past elections when the action was all in the primary election, this year the main event is the November general election.
So this year, voters will have to grab an extra cup of coffee before they grab a Democratic ballot.
Fewer Democrats are challenging incumbents this year, while Republicans are involved in about a third more races than they were four years ago.
The City Council can't help because that race is nonpartisan. Everyone gets a Council ballot.
The trouble rests with the Democrats, who are lacking real races for governor and Congress, while the GOP has spirited races going for lieutenant governor, governor and Congress.
Former Gov. John Waihee used to say he would worry about the state's minuscule GOP only when they had enough bulk to wage their own primary fight. This year that fear appears to be coming true.
The calculations, however, become complex, when you try to figure who will bolt the Democratic primary for a more interesting, contested GOP ballot.
The GOP has had between 44,000 and 58,000 voters in past primaries, but it is not unreasonable this year to expect upwards of 65,000 or 70,000 voters in this year's primary.
Interest definitely is already up in the election.
Figures tabulated late Monday show that there are about 108,000 more people registered to vote than were registered in 1994. That is a 23 percent increase.
Every county is up, with Maui County showing a huge 38 percent increase in registered voters.
Bob Awana, campaign manager for Maui Mayor Linda Lingle, figures the new interest in the GOP primary and the state's apparent renewed interest in voting are going to help Lingle win in the general election.
"We are hoping it is the result of more people saying they want to bring about change," he said.
Already there is speculation that Democrats will cross over just to vote for the weaker GOP opponent, former Mayor Frank Fasi.
Political strategists discount that, because voters commonly pick the candidate they want, rather than start a two-party strategy to force someone else out of the race.
HERE are two other scenarios that strategists are mulling over.
One, the increased number of voters expand the chances for many new winners in legislative races. Because many figure that new voters will be picking a Republican ballot, there is a better than average chance that they will be sticking with that party in future elections.
The possible increased interest in a GOP primary would also indicate a larger than expected protest vote against the incumbent governor, Ben Cayetano.
So the September GOP primary is likely to be of as much interest to Cayetano as it is to Fasi or Lingle.
Richard Borreca reports on Hawaii's politics every Wednesday.
He can be reached by e-mail at rborreca@pixi.com