THE state of the economy has a lot to do with election outcomes. Happy voters equal votes for the status quo. Gov. Benjamin Cayetano faces a mixed scene in his re-election fight. Success or failure awaits
November tallyGOOD NEWS: Construction is climbing. Several big new projects have been announced such as the hotel/entertainment addition to Ala Moana Center. Military construction is headed up. Home prices are down, sales up.
The World War II surrender ship, Missouri, has joined Arizona as a Pearl Harbor visitor attraction. Rave reviews have gone to the new convention center. Tax revenues were up at last report.
BAD NEWS: Unemployment has passed 6 percent and may go higher. Hotel occupancies are the lowest in years. Bankruptcies are up. Small businesses and restaurants have been closing at a distressing rate. The convention center is poorly booked.
Most people feel the governor's Economic Revitalization Task Force failed. It probably gets a B or B-minus grade. It stimulated public discussion and brought a better focus on the need to throw off our Democratic Party super-security blanket.
It led to autonomy for the University of Hawaii; guaranteed income at a new, high rate for tourism promotion; a quasi-independent tourism promotion managing board; time limits on development permit processing; and small steps toward more privatization of government functions.
It confirmed an attitude to shrink government but not the mechanisms. Government unions still ride high. They retain far too much control of areas belonging to management. School principals remain unionized, statewide school oversight is too bureaucratized. Governance continues to be muscle-bound by excessive rules.
The strongest perception of failure for the task force turns heavily on the rejection of a general excise tax increase in exchange for significant personal and corporate income tax cuts.
A rising economic tide can help the poor and small business more than a general excise tax increase could have hurt. It thus was defensible as part of a total stimulus package, but it got so chewed up in public that the governor now says it is off his table for good.
What economic events may transpire between now and Nov. 3?
Strong possibilities are higher unemployment, continued weak tourism and a downturn in state tax receipts. The weak Japanese yen does us no good.
GOVERNOR Cayetano has an underappreciated plus in his agreement to negotiate with the Office of Hawaiian Affairs to settle the explosive ceded land rent question out of court. Success or failure, however, won't be known until after the election.
The mood for change is strong, but will it last until Nov. 3? Thirty-six years of Democratic rule since 1962 is a long time, but not as long as the 52 years of Republican rule from 1902 to 1954.
Will we return to the mixed control we had between 1954 and 1962?
The trends listed above point to maybe yes, maybe no.
A.A. Smyser is the contributing editor
and former editor of the the Star-Bulletin
His column runs Tuesday and Thursday.