Saturday, June 20, 1998

Clinton kowtows
to China

Chinese orchestrated details
of president's upcoming trip

By Richard Halloran
Special to the Star-Bulletin

BEIJING -- In preparing to receive President Clinton later this month, Chinese authorities have out-maneuvered the White House on several points that, taken together, indicate the Chinese will have the upper hand when the critical issues of Tiananmen, Taiwan and trade are discussed.

Knowledgeable American, Chinese, Japanese and Taiwanese political observers suggested the White House has acquiesced because no one in the administration's top level has had much experience in negotiating with China. Said a Chinese scholar with government connections, "The Clinton people are not aware of how the Chinese will manipulate this visit. They don't have a clue."

Sighed an American official with long experience in Asia, "Clinton's going to kowtow all over Beijing." American business executives in Beijing, initially eager to take part in the visit, say they are backing away now because they fear the president will agree to a deal that will immediately come under critical scrutiny in Asia and the United States.

A belligerent Chinese approach to the summit was expressed Wednesday by Liu Ji, a vice president of the government Academy of Social Sciences who would not have spoken out except with blessings from higher authority. According to Reuters, Liu said in a speech, "If you [U.S.] really want to make China your enemy, you will find that China is not only an unbeatable enemy, it is a most unreasonable enemy."

This assessment of pitfalls awaiting Clinton in China was pieced together from officials and private analysts who asked not to be named because they would risk political retribution or international repercussions.

The Chinese, for whom symbolism is all-important, persuaded Clinton to move his trip from November to June, the anniversary month of the Tiananmen episode in which the Chinese army killed uncounted hundreds of democratic activists in 1989, as part of an effort to put that affair behind them.

The Chinese demanded, and the White House acquiesced, that the president come directly from Washington to China and return home without stopping in Japan, which is supposedly the key ally of the United States in Asia; most American presidents have stopped in Tokyo on visits to Asia for the past 25 years.

The Chinese have induced Clinton to spend nine days in China, far more time than seasoned diplomats can remember a U.S. president taking for a visit before; President Jiang Zemin spent the same time in the United States last fall and Clinton's visit is intended to show that he considers Jiang to be his equal.

When Clinton visits Hong Kong, he will not have a separate meeting with Martin Lee and other democratic leaders out of deference to Chinese wishes; Lee and 19 other democrats recently won election to the Hong Kong legislature dominated by Beijing.

The India-Pakistan nuclear explosions, which have drawn worldwide criticism, have been added to the agenda, much to China's pleasure because Pakistan is closely allied with Beijing. Thus Clinton risks being seen as lining up with autocratic China and Pakistan against democratic India.

During negotiations over Clinton's visit, the Chinese asked that Clinton arrive in June. At first, the White House said he could not go before the November mid-term elections. Then the political heat got turned up by potential sex scandals and White House officials arranged to get the president out of Washington in March to Africa, in April to Latin America, in May to Europe and now June to China.

In Beijing, President Jiang and other leaders have been eager to end controversy over the Tiananmen incident by asserting that their handling of the dissidence was right. "China's Communist Party and government have made a correct decision," Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao asserted earlier this month. The Chinese plan to have Clinton's appearance in Tiananmen Square signal that he agrees and thus help to bring symbolic closure to this sorry chapter in China's history.

On another point, Clinton officials said the president planned to stop over in Tokyo either on the way to China or on the way back. No, the Chinese said, Clinton would come to China and return to the United States without a stopping anywhere. They insisted because President Jiang had gone directly to the U.S. and returned home last year and Clinton must do the same to put China and America on a even playing field.

Altogether, Americans experienced in Asia expressed concern over how Clinton's visit to China would be seen in Japan. They feared that damage has already been done, even though Japanese diplomats have sought to play down the snub, saying they "understand" the president's time constraints.

American and allied "Asia hands" also had misgivings over the way the trip would be viewed in the rest of Asia. Following Jiang's procession through the United States last fall, Clinton's trip could only aid Beijing's crusade to revive the concept of the Middle Kingdom in which China is Asia's dominant power.

Not that President Jiang will have a free hand with Clinton. The Chinese leader must quell a raging debate between leaders of the People's Liberation Army, who demand that China confront the U.S., and the foreign and economic ministries that see good relations with the U.S. to be in China's interest.

In particular, Jiang cannot afford to anger senior military officers as they hold the key to power despite repeated protestations that they will be guided by the Communist Party. The PLA takes a hard line on Taiwan and has called Chinese diplomats "traitors" for what the PLA considers a soft attitude toward the United States.

Thus, Clinton can expect tough words on Taiwan, which Beijing considers to be a breakaway province. Chinese leaders have said repeatedly in recent weeks that the future of Taiwan "is the most important and most sensitive core issue in the relations between China and the United States."

Add in issues of human rights, the nuclear arms race in South Asia, continuing tensions on the Korean peninsula, Asia's economic turmoil, and Sino-U.S. trade disputes, and the agenda becomes daunting. President Clinton defended his China policy in an address to the National Geographic Society on June 11 but seemed to miss the point. Many Americans appear to agree that good relations with China are in the U.S. national interest. The question is whether the president is going about it the right way.

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Richard Halloran, a former New York Times
correspondent in Asia, is a freelance writer
based in Honolulu.