Cayetano's rating slips as
isle's economy takes its toll

By Richard Borreca
Star-Bulletin

Republican gubernatorial candidate Linda Lingle makes a favorable impression on Hawaii's voters at the same time that Democratic Gov. Ben Cayetano's popularity is sliding.

A Honolulu Star-Bulletin/NBC Hawaii News 8 Poll shows that since September, Cayetano's favorable rating has plummeted from 43 percent to 27 percent.

Voters feel that Cayetano hasn't done a good job managing the state.

In this month's survey only 28 percent of the voters rate Cayetano good or excellent.

The poll showed more than half the voters gave Lingle a favorable rating.

Cayetano and Maui Mayor Lingle both appeal to about a third of Japanese-American voters, while Lingle is viewed favorably by about two-thirds of both white and Hawaiian voters.

In contrast, Cayetano's largest base of support is Filipino-American voters.

The poll was conducted May 29-June 3 by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research of Columbia, Md. It surveyed 439 registered voters statewide by telephone. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Former Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi, who is running as a Republican against Lingle, shows little support, with 20 percent of the voters giving him a favorable rating and nearly 60 percent viewing him unfavorably.

The election debate is being driven by Hawaii's economic fears. Voters are upset that the state's top executive can't move Hawaii out of its seven-year recession.

"He is a very good man and he recognizes the problems, but he can't see the cause of the problems," said Francis Young, a Montgomery Elevator employee, when asked about Cayetano's job performance.

"If you have a car with a flat tire, any dummy can tell you the tire is flat, but someone has got to say that you got a flat because there are 10 million nails in the road," he said.

Compounding the problem for Cayetano is the public's declining belief that he has a strong vision for the state.

In March 1996, 45 percent of Hawaii's voters thought Cayetano had a strong vision, but by last week that number had shrunk to just 27 percent.

Les Choi, a commercial fisherman, doesn't think Cayetano is following through on promises to fix the state budget.

"There is money that could be used and he just doesn't use it," he said.

Although Lingle's record as mayor of Maui for two terms isn't well known, voters like Choi and Young say they want change.

"She might just do it," Young said.

The poll shows Lingle's name recognition growing. Eight months ago almost a third of the voters hadn't heard of her, despite her 18 years in elected office. Today, 6 percent of the voters don't recognize her name. Cayetano enjoys 100 percent name recognition.

For her part, Lingle sees the poll results as evidence of new grass-roots support.

"We had 1,000 people for a rally in Hilo; people said they never saw anything like that," Lingle said. "It wasn't an accident. It was because people are upset with Cayetano and it was because of a lot of hard work.

"This is the most grass-roots campaign the Republicans have ever run," she said.

For many voters, however, the issue isn't Lingle, but Cayetano and the economy.

"I don't think people dislike him personally. I don't dislike him, but I don't believe he can get us out of this recession," said Lingle. "People want change. It is a good year for a challenger."

Democratic state Sen. Mike McCartney, speaking for Cayetano, said the campaign will bring out the "contrasts in the leadership styles between Lingle and the governor.

"What we are finding is that very few people know about his accomplishments," McCartney said.

"We need to get that out. The other question is about leadership. I think that as a leader, he has had to deal with forces beyond his control.

"The record will show he has done a good job in dealing with those forces."

Democrats are also counting on the Republicans to peak early in the polls, allowing Cayetano to make steady improvement to the November general election.

Four years ago, for instance, GOP challenger Pat Saiki led Cayetano by a big margin in the polls, but by election day, her campaign had collapsed and she came in third behind both Cayetano and independent challenger Fasi.

Lingle says her campaign is different because voters know her through one-on-one meetings and speeches before small groups.

"You need grass-roots support to withstand the whisper campaigns. My strength is my closeness to the people who are supporting me," she said.

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Kawananakoa gets top
favorable rating

By Richard Borreca
Star-Bulletin

Although he has served in Washington for eight years, U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie is viewed unfavorably by more than 40 percent of the voters in his congressional district.

That's a bit of a slide from July 1996 when his unfavorable rating was 33 percent from Star-Bulletin poll respondents.

Abercrombie, a Hawaii political veteran, served in the state House and Senate and on the City Council before securing his congressional seat in 1990.

Abercrombie faces either Republican state Rep. Quentin Kawananakoa or Rep. Gene Ward in the November election.

In a written statement from Washington, Abercrombie dismissed the poll's results.

"We're still more than five months away from the general election, and it's too early to start talking about polls," he said.

But Kawananakoa, who enjoys a 42 percent favorable and only 15 percent unfavorable rating, said he is encouraged.

"I'm going door to door. The poll won't change our strategy, but it is encouraging," he said.

The other Republican, Gene Ward, suffers from a lack of recognition, as almost half, 43 percent, of the voters don't know him.

Ward has been in the Legislature since 1990. He has an interest in international business and has served as a Peace Corps volunteer.

"I have clearly got to get the word out," Ward said.

"I'm the small one. I need to let voters know that the big money is behind the other guys."

All three candidates are pitching their campaigns at improving the economy, with the incumbent Abercrombie pointing to federal defense contracts he has helped secure and the two Republicans saying they were better able to understand the business needs of Hawaii.

The poll was conducted among 439 registered voters contacted by telephone May 29 to June 3 by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc. of Columbia, Md.

Because only half of the voters surveyed live in the 1st Congressional District, the margin of error for this poll is 6.9 percent.