Isle economist sees
construction upturn

By Russ Lynch
Star-Bulletin

The value of construction activity completed in Hawaii this year will be up slightly from 1997, in a small turnaround, according to Bank of Hawaii's annual industry forecast.

The bank's annual publication Construction in Hawaii predicts total contracting receipts in 1998 of $2.91 billion, a 1.7 percent increase over the 1997 level.

Adjusting for inflation, the value increases only 0.8 percent but the bank sees it as the beginning of an upturn.

Paul Brewbaker, the bank's chief economist, said he expects a faster increase in 1999, a rise of 7.6 percent (5 percent after accounting for inflation) to $3.14 billion.

He said his forecast is based on assumptions that there will be a slow recovery in private sector construction and that the state's capital improvement program will create a temporary boost in public construction in 1998-99.

Construction of new homes has been hampered by economic conditions but that appears to have hit bottom, Brewbaker said.

Meanwhile one construction indicator is down. Contracts written in the first four months of this year for future Hawaii construction were off 4 percent from the 1997 period, at $499.4 million compared to $518.7 million, according to the F.W. Dodge Division of McGraw-Hill Cos.