Analysis
Incumbent lawmakers
see tough election ahead'Every incumbent has got to earn
By Mike Yuen
his constituents' trust all over again'
Star-BulletinBy many accounts, state Rep. Ed Case distinguished himself during the recently concluded legislative session. The Manoa Democrat bucked Gov. Ben Cayetano and House Speaker Joe Souki (D, Wailuku), opposing a general excise tax increase that eventually died. He led the insurgency that ultimately forced the House leadership to agree to a Senate bill that sets compensation for Bishop Estate trustees at a "reasonable" level established by Probate Court.
He did what his constituents desired, Case believes.
But, he adds, "This is a year when every incumbent who il,11p6,7p1 thinks he's done a good job has got to earn his constituents' trust all over again."
Indeed, the public mood is volatile. As this year's political campaigns unfold, public-opinion polls reveal widespread concern with the state's economic malaise and dissatisfaction with Cayetano and the Democratic-dominated Legislature.
The restless public mood has led many Democratic legislators to view incumbency more as a liability than as an asset. They believe they must be "anti-incumbent incumbents."
Isle Republicans, meanwhile, sense this could be a watershed year, where even Democrats like Case who go against their leaders are seen as vulnerable.
The GOP seriously talks of winning the governorship for the first time since 1959, capturing a congressional seat and making major gains in the 51-member House, where there are 12 Republicans but two who are leaving for a congressional bid.
The GOP is focusing on the state House -- not the 25-member state Senate, where there are only two Republicans. An early assessment by party strategists concludes that at least 15 Democrats -- including Speaker Souki and seven others from his majority group -- are vulnerable.
But Republicans concede they won't be the sole beneficiaries if there is an anti-incumbent backlash. New Democrats could also benefit, say GOP operatives, who acknowledge that they have yet to find strong candidates for all the districts that they see as having beatable incumbents.
Even Cayetano predicts: "This year will be a very competitive year."
There are also some unusual crosscurrents surging across political lines. When Linda Lingle, the GOP gubernatorial candidate and Maui mayor, assesses the work done by the Legislature this year, she gives it a D+ grade. But she heaps praise on the Senate bipartisan dissident faction led by Sen. Randy Iwase, a Democrat -- yes, a Democrat -- from Mililani.
The dissidents were "very bold," advocating more balanced positions that would allow privatization of government services and eliminate unnecessary hinderances of businesses, such as workers' compensation claims for stress, Lingle says.
For Iwase, who's up for re-election, "The mood out there this year is such that all incumbents have to take their challenges seriously. The voters will judge us on the positions we took during the session and why we did it."
Explaining why he took on the Senate leadership, Iwase says: "When you look down the list, the only bright light for the Senate was holding the line against a general excise tax hike. On most of the other major postions, the House had the better positions that were more reflective of the community. The House was more relevant than the Senate."
In Case's view, "We need people in the Legislature and the governor's office who are not going to play it safe. We need people who are going to challenge the status quo."
But for real estate developer Walter Yim, whom GOP insiders tout as the stronger of two Republicans challenging Case, Case is part of the problem.
He's a member of the long-dominant party that caused Hawaii's woes, Yim asserts.
Moreover, Case, as House Hawaiian affairs chairman, was out of touch with the native Hawaiian community, says Yim, whose ancestry is three-eights Hawaiian.
Case's bill to merge the Office of Hawaiian Affairs and the Department of Hawaiian Home Lands into a single agency to handle all Hawaiian issues "ticked people off," Yim asserts.
Case was forced to kill the measure.
Yim says it was people in Hawaiian civic clubs -- not OHA or the Bishop Estate -- who urged him to run.
A member of Small Business Hawaii, which is headed by state Sen. Sam Slom (R, Kalama Valley), Yim describes Slom as "my inspiration. I'm kind of following in his footsteps."
In 1996, Slom ousted one of the Senate's most powerful Democrats, then-Ways and Means Chairwoman Donna Ikeda (Hawaii Kai).
Democrats face
By Mike Yuen
challenges from hopeful
Republican Party
Star-BulletinWITH the 1998 legislative session over, the candidates' filing deadline only two months away and the campaign season heating up, here's an early assessment of some Senate and House races that bear watching:
SENATE
1st District (North Hilo-Kohala): Incumbent Malama Solomon, a Senate dissident, could be in a tough Democratic primary against former Big Island Mayor Lorraine Inouye and a political newcomer, Dr. Frederick Holschuh. Businessman Chuck Clarke, who brought Costco to the Big Island, has filed for the Republican primary, which will also draw former state Sen. John Carroll.
HOUSE
