How world
should react to India’s
nuclear testingJapan ought to take lead in encouraging
By Ralph Cossa
India and other holdouts to sign test banHAS the nuclear genie been let out of the bottle? Will this week's series of nuclear tests by India result in a new nuclear arms race? Will Pakistan soon follow suit? Will North Korea? Will others?
The answer to these questions will depend, in large part, on the nature of the global reaction to India's blatant, unrepentant act of defiance against the near-universal world-wide consensus against nuclear testing.
Statements of regret or condemnation, and even the selective application of sanctions, will not be enough to pressure India to reverse course or to convince Pakistan and others not to follow India's lead.
New Delhi, and those tempted to follow India's lead, must understand that the consequences are both severe and long term.
In December 1996, I suggested at an ASEAN Regional Forum-sponsored non-proliferation meeting in Jakarta that all nations that had demonstrated their commitment to the goal of global denuclearization -- by signing the Comprehensive Test Ban treaty (CTBT) -- further announce independent lists of political and economic sanctions that would be applied automatically against any nation that decided to conduct nuclear weapons tests.
I further called on Japan to start the ball rolling through a unilateral delegation that others, most specifically including India's fellow ARF colleagues, could then follow.
The objectives were two-fold: First, to put pressure on CTBT non-signers (India, Pakistan, North Korea) not to test; second, to dissuade others from using a single state's resumption of tests as an excuse to initiate (or resume) its own testing.
The second objective remains a valid one, even as we try to find ways to pressure India to not go any further along the nuclear weapons path.
As a result, I would once again call on Japan to consider taking the lead. Unlike the United States or the other nuclear weapons states, Tokyo cannot be accused of merely trying to maintain its advantage.
As a committed non-nuclear weapons state with first hand knowledge of the horrors of nuclear weapons, Japan's leadership credentials in this area are impeccable.
I would urge Prime Minister Hashimoto to announce, at this weekend's G8 meeting in London, that Japan immediately suspending all aid, developmental assistance and concessionary bank loans to India and that Tokyo would automatically take the same action against any other state that chooses to begin or resume nuclear testing.
Hashimoto should further say that such sanctions would not be lifted until the offending state ceased tests, signed the CTBT without conditions, and then demonstrated its commitment to honor its obligation under the CTBT for at least one year. Only then would Japan consider a resumption of assistance.
Hashimoto should call on all other members to follow suit and to also echo the U.S. pledge to oppose future World Bank and International Monetary Fund loans to India.
India has stated that it would, at some pont, "be prepared to consider being an adherent to some of the undertakings in the CTBT."
It must be made clear that nothing less than unconditional acceptance of the CTBT is sufficient and that even this will not result in an immediate lifting of sanctions.
To do otherwise invites Pakistan and others to begin testing under the belief that penalties, even if harsh, will be temporary.
Should Tokyo choose to take the lead, one would expect the U.S. to immediately follow Japan's example and make it clear that its current announced sanctions (many triggered automatically by virtue of Congressional legislation) would not be lifted until India signs and then demonstrates its commitment to the CTBT.
White House spokesmen also need to quit beating around the bush and make it clear that it will not be business as usual as long as India continues testing.
Specifically, President Clinton should announce that New Delhi's signing of the CTBT is now a pre-condition to Clinton's visit to India this year.
He should further state that his planned visit to Pakistan will proceed, provided that Islamabad refuses to yield to the temptation of once again following India's lead.
In return, the U.S. and China should consider jointly providing Pakistan with security assurances against this increased Indian threat.
Conversely, it must be made clear to Pakistan that initiation of nuclear testing by Islamabad will result in the same harsh, long-term consequences confronting India.
Ralph A. Cossa is executive director of the Pacific Forum/CSIS
in Honolulu, a nonprofit, foreign policy research institute affiliated with
the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
