THE crisis in Asia is over," says the widely traveled secretary general of the organization that calls itself "The Voice of Business in the Pacific." He's Robert Lees of the Honolulu-based Pacific Basin Economic Council. It has 1,000 corporate members from all over the area. Assessments of Asia’s
economic troublesLees has a big exception, however. The crisis in Japan won't go away until its bureaucracy, "now responsible to no one," is brought under control. On that score: "We have to be hopeful."
Lees further adds that the only way to view Asia is country by country. Each has had differing experiences with the 1997 "Asian flu" that led to massive business collapses and national currency devaluations.
What they have in common is that they are putting in place new financial structures that will help soften future problems. Many are creating procedures, where none existed before, like the U.S. Chapter 11 bankruptcy law, to keep troubled companies operating during rehabilitation.
Processes will be more open. There is less talk of "the Asian Way."
On the same panel was Leroy Laney, economist for First Hawaiian Bank, whose office is being shut down June 25. Laney will become a full-time professor at Hawaii Pacific University. He generally agreed but called these "the worst of times" for Japan while the U.S. is experiencing "the best of times."
He said the Asian "tsunami" pretty well pooped out before it reached the mainland of America. It has not seriously depressed America as a whole. The U.S. is creating 200,000 new jobs a month at a sustainable pace.
East Asia's troubles are hurting the economies of Western states, however, and will hold Hawaii's 1998 economic growth close to zero, Laney believes, even as the U.S. mainland sends us more travelers.
Forty percent of our tourist income comes from Asia. If the yen-dollar exchange continues to move to the disadvantage of Japan, that could further depress travel to Hawaii. A few years ago Japanese could buy a dollar for below 90 yen. Now the price is near 130 and could go to 140 or 150.
Lees said Japanese citizens have considerable savings but their leaders worry that a tax cut may encourage them to save more, not to spend more as is desired for economic stimulation.
The forum was sponsored by the Pacific and Asian Affairs Council and the Chamber of Commerce of Hawaii.
Neither Lees nor Laney expects the Asian region to return to 1997 economic levels for at least a few years. Both see the possibility of more bumps ahead but no meltdown.
Asia retains its assets, Lees said, of a strong work ethic, a deep commitment to education and high savings. Double digit growth rates may not return but a slow recovery is in sight.
ASIA will remain, Lees and Laney agreed, of major importance to Hawaii's future. We should keep our connections strong.
Lees added a word for India, not considered a part of the region, but a significant neighbor with a middle class numbering 200 million.
Both India and China, he said, now offer opportunities that are encouraging their skilled expatriates to bring their know-how home from other parts of the world. Madras, India, has hopes to become a high-tech center like Silicon Valley in California.
At an earlier forum, Seiji Naya, key economic adviser to Governor Cayetano, suggested Hawaii should seek more travel from rural Japan, an underdeveloped market, encourage more foreign investment in exchange for U.S. residence privileges and encourage Asian developers to come here for periodic meetings to be briefed on Hawaii development opportunities.
A.A. Smyser is the contributing editor
and former editor of the the Star-Bulletin
His column runs Tuesday and Thursday.