Saturday, April 4, 1998

Just how dangerous
is China?

Debate is forming between
Pacific military command and Pentagon
over threat from East

By Richard Halloran
Special to the Star-Bulletin

Ancient China's famed strategist, Sun Tzu, cautioned the leaders of his day to avoid at all costs miscalculating the capabilities or intentions of potential adversaries lest disaster strike. "If you know neither the enemy nor yourself," Sun Tzu said, "you will succumb in every battle."

In contrast, modern China's revolutionary leader, Mao Zedong, brushed aside that warning: "All reactionaries are paper tigers. In appearance, the reactionaries are terrifying, but in reality they are not so powerful."

Today, senior American defense officials are debating whether their Chinese counterparts will, in effect, heed Sun Tzu or Mao Zedong. Presumably, those deliberations will influence President Clinton's discussions with Chinese leaders when he visits Beijing in June. The underlying American fear is that the Chinese might miscalculate into thinking they could prevail over the U.S. in an Asian conflict.

Leading one school of thought is Adm. Joseph W. Prueher, who commands U.S. forces in the Pacific from his headquarters in Honolulu; he says Chinese military leaders are "smart, pragmatic" officers who understand that their Peoples Liberation Army does not compare with U.S. forces "in any way." On the other side, influential Pentagon analysts say Chinese leaders hold "dangerous misperceptions that may well cause serious political friction or even military conflict with the United States."

For now, the argument appears to have tilted toward Prueher's point of view. The Chinese have not beaten the war drums for more than a year. Little at the recent National People's Congress suggested that China's leaders were eager to confront the U.S. even though sizable U.S. forces have been shifted from the Pacific to the Arabian Sea in the dispute with Iraq. U.S. officials have said the Chinese have sought to rein in the belligerent North Koreans to prevent hostilities against South Korea.

But John D. Holum, the senior State Department official concerned with arms control, was less than forthright in Beijing several days ago when asked whether the U.S. was satisfied that China had ceased providing Iran with nuclear and missile technology. "We will continue to have questions in both areas, I am sure," he told correspondents. Moreover, the State Department spokesman, James Rubin, said this week the U.S. would continue to sell arms to Taiwan, which Beijing considers to be a breakaway province.

Thus, none of this means the Chinese have retreated from their long-term ambition of making the PLA a world-class force and getting the U.S. to withdraw from Asia even if they are exercising military caution now. Two generals, Zhang Wannian and Chi Haotian, told the National People's Congress that a plan to dismiss 500,000 troops in favor of a more modern force would proceed on schedule over the next three years. Zhang said the PLA would "persevere in strengthening the army through the use of science and technology" while Chi pledged that officers would "be qualified politically, competent militarily, sound in their style of work, well-disciplined, and assured of adequate logistical support."

The American debate over China's strategic calculus appears to have begun two years ago after the Chinese conducted land, sea and air maneuvers, plus missile firings, on the shores opposite the island of Taiwan. The U.S., which insists the Taiwan question be resolved peacefully, dispatched two aircraft carriers to the seas east of Taiwan while the State Department sent vigorous warnings to Beijing. The Chinese backed down, partly because they lacked sufficient amphibious forces to cross the Taiwan Strait. Even so, Gen. Chi stunned American officers by delivering what many considered to be a bellicose speech at the National Defense University in Washington in December 1966.

In apparent response, senior American officers have sought to dissuade the Chinese from miscalculating. Gen. John M. Shalikashvili, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, cautioned PLA officers in Beijing last May that the Taiwan crisis could have had "unpredictable consequences."

Three times he urged them to seek ways to "lessen the chances for miscalculation." Admiral Prueher told a similar audience in December that more Sino-American military exchanges would "reduce the potential for misunderstanding and miscalculation."

Then Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen addressed the Academy of Military Sciences in Beijing in January, saying the U.S. opened windows for the world to inspect its armed might because that served U.S. interests.

"Allowing others to see our peaceful intentions and our military capability," he said, "helps to avoid misunderstanding and miscalculation resulting from either unfounded fear or misinformed folly."

Along with these cautions, the U.S. has invited 200 senior Chinese defense officials over the past year to see American soldiers fire tank guns with stunning accuracy, fighter pilots hit simulated targets with precision, and sailors operate high-tech sensors that can detect distant targets at sea. "I think," Adm. Prueher concluded in an interview, "the Chinese....understand the strength of our military forces."

The admiral said his command was "not in the mode of breast-beating about the strength of U.S. militarty forces" and said he did not see a benefit in "constantly trumpeting how strong our military is." He paused, however, and added quietly: "Every now and then, it is useful to demonstrate a data point."

Analysts in the Pentagon's Office of Net Assessment aren't so sure the Chinese have got the point... In a report entitled "Dangerous Chinese Misperceptions," they noted a Chinese belief that the U.S. is a declining power and that China is poised to leap ahead as both strive to build technologically advanced armed forces.

Those analysts, a small cluster who report directly to the secretary of defense, argued that the Chinese believe weaker powers can often defeat stronger powers. Their report, disclosed by the Washington Post in mid-February, expressed concern that the Chinese think Americans lack the will to fightand that assessment could lead to a dangerous Chinese decision to attack Taiwan.