Hawaii’s World

By A.A. Smyser

Tuesday, February 3, 1998

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Scowcroft’s views
on the world scene

WHEN George Bush was president, the national security adviser by his side was Brent Scowcroft. Still based in Washington, Scowcroft now has various foreign policy advisory roles. He pops out to Honolulu once a year as chairman of Pacific Forum/CSIS, the Honolulu-based think tank that focuses on Asia-Pacific policy.

To tune in on his lucid round-the-world-in-60-minutes policy briefings is a major treat. His 1998 size-up included these highlights:

The U.S. had relatively easy foreign policy challenges in 1997. This year is going to be much tougher.

Asia's economic problems are our concern as well as theirs. Regional collapse would hurt our interests as well as theirs. Dangers include financial chaos, immense unemployment, political turmoil, and anger with a nasty edge against America and even China (see below).

In Congress we need strong leadership to keep us from turning protectionist against an increased flow of cheaper Asian products. Protectionism, Scowcroft is sure, would be a long-term foreign policy disaster for us.

Congress, however, has none of the strong foreign policy leaders it had in the past. Jesse Helms, chairman of foreign affairs in the Senate, is anti-involvement. Anti-abortionists fight to put their stamp on foreign policy legislation.

The buck thus stops with President Clinton. Last year he failed to win congressional OK of more fast-track legislation to expedite foreign trade agreements. Now Clinton is diverted and weakened by personal scandal charges.

The Senate must ratify the expansion of NATO. It may be close.

Japan could help in Asia but is weakened by its own factionalism. Other Asian governments, Thailand, in particular, have trouble winning support for the tough steps necessary to fix their economies.

China is in a comparatively stable phase of its history and pursuing a benign foreign policy. Jiang Zemin is no paramount leader like his predecessors. Leadership is more collegial and better trained than the old revolutionaries. We should pursue our joint interests with China and have more contact with its military.

Korean Peninsula security remains dominated by uncertainty about the North, which has taken us by surprise in the past with events like the 1950 war, the seizure of the USS Pueblo, and assassinations of South Korean leaders in Rangoon. The best scenario from our standpoint would be a gradual evolution in the North away from the economic brink and military threats. Keeping U.S. troops in Korea is in the security interest of the entire region.

Scowcroft was backed up by Robert Scalapino, professor emeritus of political science at the University of California, who may be America's most influential Asian scholar. They jointly noted that the areas best riding out the Asian crisis are China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, all with Chinese ethnic populations while ethnic Chinese in other Southeast Asia nations make up only 15 percent of the populations but control 85 percent of the assets. If things get worse, this could stir up strong anti-Chinese animosities.

On the Middle East: Scrowcroft was at President Bush's side in the Gulf War in 1991 when the president decided not to send our victorious army on to Baghdad. We had accomplished our goal of getting Iraq out of Kuwait, Scowcroft said. Further, our Arab allies were unwilling to press farther against a fellow Arab nation and we feared a quagmire like our Korea or Vietnam involvements if we didn't stop.

Today, Scowcroft said, the decision still seems sound if the allies continue to keep a foot on Saddam Hussein's neck, but support for that seems to be waning