JUST over a year from now - Monday, Dec. 7, 1998 - we will either be watching the inaugurationof Gov. Benjamin Cayetano for a second term or seeing a successor installed on the Iolani Palace grounds. The outlook for 1998 governor's race
The hurdles en route are a July 21 deadline for candidates to file, a Sept. 19 primary election and the general election Nov. 3.
Here's my size-up of the three or four possible major candidates:
Governor Cayetano - The probable winner. Incumbency is a big help. His record shows someone who is pretty tough and straight. An asset not present in 1994 is his new wife, Vicky, a charming, candid public speaker on his behalf. Major factors will be whether he gets his Economic Revitalization Task Force proposals through the Legislature and how he fares in the Bishop Estate investigation he has ordered.
Honolulu Mayor Jeremy Harris - A possible winner, but maybe not a candidate at all. He will run if it seems a sure thing against Cayetano in the Sept. 19 Democratic primary. But he will hesitate if it's not a sure thing because to run requires resigning by July 21 from his mayor's job, where he can serve through the year 2000 and be a good bet then for re-election. If he wants to wait until 2002 to go all out for governor, he still will be only 51 years old. A Honolulu Advertiser poll published Nov. 3 showed him ahead of Cayetano by 35-27 percent in a Democratic primary race. That may be disappointing to him. It is not nearly as strong a lead as his people had been forecasting earlier. Cayetano is a big picture man. The mayor is a master of detail and careful planning. They present quite a contrast.
Maui Mayor Linda Lingle - A long-shot possible winner even though she combats the negatives of being a Republican, a woman and a neighbor islander. We have never had a woman or a neighbor islander as governor and last elected a Republican in 1959, our first year of statehood. What's more, no major labor union is likely to endorse her in this labor state. She has a chance because she makes sense. She synthesizes issues beautifully. Her views are refreshingly non-stereotyped. She has managed on Maui to persuade many labor union members she is non-threatening even though their leaders endorse someone else. She will raise the tone of the campaign at least until it turns to the usual wrapup dirty tricks, character assassination and misrepresentation. Lingle scored 27 percent against Cayetano's 39 in the Advertiser poll, only 23-44 against Harris.
Former Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi - He can't win, but he might run. If he runs he can choose either of the regular parties or his own third party. Party loyalty never has been a big thing with him. The Advertiser poll showed he still has a brand name (20 percent) even though he is 77, my age, and a lot crankier. His most likely aim will be to hurt his successor and former assistant, Harris, whom he regularly denounces as disloyal and unimaginative. Even his best friends may not know until next July 21 what he will do.
We had three finalists in 1994 - Cayetano, Fasi and the Republican candidate, Pat Saiki. Cayetano won without a majority and turned out to be the best choice.
Saiki, a fine person who had an enormous lead in the polls early in 1994, didn't have a key quality that it takes to win: fire in the belly. She might not have had it either as governor.
Fasi just is a politician whose time has passed. Cayetano, Harris and Lingle all have fire in the belly. Politics is their meat. Any of the three would be a good governor. They give the voters a richer choice than 1994.