The legacy of ENSO
(the artist formerly known as El Nino)
By Greg Ambrose
Star-Bulletin
Bad News; Good News
Heat, humidity, hurricanes, typhoons,
cyclones, Iniki, Iwa, famine among the
fishes, generally weird weather ...
but great surf!Hawaii surfers are all smiles because their good friend ENSO has come back, bringing great waves for everyone. Oh sure, ENSO has been implicated for creating serious vandalism on a global scale, but the surfers don't care. ENSO always seems to pass out the good stuff: waves. And this visit from ENSO promises to bring enough waves to make every surfer's dreams come true.
Hot, muggy, rainy summer in Hawaii? Blame ENSO. Hurricanes menacing the islands until November, followed by winter drought? ENSO again.
Winter storms battering California while the Pacific Northwest dries up and blows away? Don't look at me, it's that darn ENSO.
Formally known as El Nino/Southern Oscillation, a name only a meteorologist could love, ENSO and its antics are well-known to weather watchers. And although it is only a juvenile at this point, scientific scrutiny indicates that this ENSO could become a big, bad bully.
In fact, it might rival or even surpass the ENSO event of 1982-83, which was blamed for climactic catastrophes that caused billions of dollars in damage, according to Sean Collins, surf forecaster for Surfline/Wavetrak.
In the most basic terms, ENSO is born when westerly winds blow a vast pool of warm water from around Papua New Guinea, sending it oscillating thousands of miles along the equator to South America.
According to University of Hawaii oceanographer Roger Lukas, this invasion of unusually warm water in the central and eastern Pacific has widespread and interesting consequences. It disrupts fisheries as warm-water fish follow the heated seas much farther north and south of the equator, wreaking havoc all along the food chain.
South American fishermen were the first to note that the upwelling of nutrients that fuel their fisheries sometimes would vanish during the celebration of the Christ child's birth, and dubbed the phenomenon El Nino.
As scientists watched ENSO more closely for nearly two decades, they noticed it kicked okole all over the globe. Droughts during ENSO years plagued Western Europe, South Africa, Guam and the Philippines, while floods inundated Australia, Ecuador, Mexico and Texas.
The Midwest has sweltered under record winter temperatures, while the Middle East shivered with snow and extreme cold, and Hawaii has been pummeled by hurricanes, the infamous Iwa and Iniki.
But what the heck, as long as ENSO brings waves. "The odds are good that we are going to have a pretty active winter," says Collins in one of those understatements that make meteorologists such lively companions.
Lukas is less cautious, attributing the recent southwest swell to ENSO and predicting a winter filled with big waves and clean conditions.
Most surfers spend an inordinate amount of time praying for waves, but they can be tormented when their prayers are answered.
Surfer/paddler Blair Thorndike has been training for years in anticipation of this weekend's Molokai-to-Oahu paddleboard race. And he has spent a lifetime praying for good summer swells.
His prayers were answered, creating a nightmare for the paddlers, most of whom would rather have been surfing the big southwest swell than butting into it head-first during their cross-channel competition.
"Oh well, the Molokai race is once in a lifetime," Thorndike says, then adds with a sigh, "but so is a giant south swell in August."
No one prays for surf more fervently than Randy Rarick, chairman of the Triple Crown of Surfing. It's only mid-summer, and incredibly, Rarick already has new sponsors and more money to dangle before the international field of surf stars for the winter event.
"All we need now is good waves," Rarick says, lamenting last winter's lousy surf.
The best thing about ENSO is that it sends surf to Hawaii from all corners of the Pacific. Storms in the southern hemisphere form in a favorable area to create big summer swells, such as this weekend's welcome dose of waves, says oceanographer Pat Caldwell.
Although hurricane season in the eastern Pacific has been slow so far, the eastward-migrating pool of warm water creates perfect conditions for hurricanes in late summer and fall, says Collins.
Warm water keeps storms alive longer and increases their intensity, sending good surf to Hawaii.
Unfortunately, cyclones that would have spun up around Ponape, then turned into typhoons and nailed Guam, form closer to Hawaii as hurricanes during ENSO, says Lukas.
Warmer water creates massive storm clouds that alter the path of the subtropical jet stream -- a belt of extremely strong high-altitude winds -- that steers the hurricanes. And it can steer them right toward Hawaii, with a potential for massive damage, says Collins.
But if they miss Hawaii, the storms go on to menace Japan, then curve back, link up with cold fronts and -- again -- send big waves to Hawaii's northwest shores, in time to jumpstart the winter surf season.
And there's more. During the winter, when frigid arctic air masses start sweeping down, they hit that warm ENSO water and boom, combustible weather. The drastic temperature differences and moisture in the air create intense storms that send giant waves to Hawaii.
However, if the storms track too close to Hawaii, the waves arrive with some pretty nasty weather, says Lukas.
"The most important key is not El Nino, but where the high pressure is set up during the winter," says Collins.
High pressure acts as a buffer to keep the storms from getting too close, Lukas explains.
Then local surfers get good, light trade winds along with big swells and sunny skies, perfect conditions.
But if the high pressure vanishes, the storms can sweep down on top of Hawaii, as they did during the '82-'83 ENSO that featured big waves and bad storms.
No one wants to remember that, however. Surfers are content to savor the recent south swell and anticipate more to come.
Don't look too far ahead, warns Lukas. "The surf is always worse on the South Shore the year after El Nino."
And don't even ask about El Nino's frigid sister, La Nina, an extreme cold-weather event. That's another story.
