Hawaii’s World

By A.A. Smyser

Thursday, July 17, 1997

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Fig leaves that are
crucial to peace in Asia

I came away from some recent talks on China, Japan and the U.S. with the thought that two fig leaves are absolutely crucial to future peace in Asia. The first is the fig leaf worn by Taiwan to hide the fact it is really an independent nation. The second is the fig leaf worn by China to hide the fact it is no longer communist.

The present peace in China is possible only by hiding these two truths.

China doesn't have to make war on Taiwan as it would feel obliged to do if Taiwan ever called itself independent. And we remain unofficially supportive of Taiwan as long as it doesn't flaunt the one-China policy the U.S. has followed since President Nixon's Shanghai Communique of 1972 and our formal transfer of official diplomatic relations from Taipei to Beijing on Jan. 1, 1979. We have no troops on Taiwan, but still give it arms help and moral support that would vanish if it proclaimed independence. It remains one of our best trading partners.

Behind Fig Leaf No. 2, China's leaders proceed down their highly rewarding free-enterprise path without having to face the tearing apart of the country that a formal renunciation of their communist ideology would bring.

Call it "face" or anything else, both fig leaves prevent bloodshed. They also allow evolutionary change to proceed in the place of revolutionary change. The don't-rush-it wisdom of the U.S.-China understandings since 1972 seems greater with every passing year.

The Japan-America Society of Hawaii focused attention on China-U.S.-Japan relations at three lunch meetings tapping into the wisdom of University of Hawaii-Manoa Professors Robert Sakai (history emeritus), Daniel Kwok (history) and David Yang (business). Also Robert Lees of the Pacific Basin Economic Council, Ralph Cossa of Pacific Forum/CSIS and Richard Halloran, international journalist. It is worth noting that not many U.S. cities have the breadth of Asia-Pacific understanding that can be found in Honolulu, these six being a representative sample.

Several thoughts stick with me after listening to them:

To understand today's relations among the powers in Asia, one must understand much more than current events. Old rivalries and encounters firmly mold today's attitudes. China remembers intrusions from Western nations and Japan. Japan's faster modernization than China's grows from its relative stability over the last century and a half versus recurrent power struggles overthrowing governments in China.

Today China still welcomes the U.S.-Japan Security Pact as a restraining hand on Japanese militarism. It may not feel the same in 10 years or so as it becomes stronger itself. By then the U.S. and China may be vying to lead in this fastest growing economic region in the world. Japan worries where it will fit in.

Russia and Korea figure in the power interaction to a lesser extent. All, except possibly North Korea, share a common interest in keeping peace in Korea.

No one can be sure today whether China in the future will be aggressive, benign or break apart. The last option, however, is seen as the least probable.

While America is doing passing well in its day-by-day relations with the powers of Asia, our long-term planning seems weak or nonexistent. The Clinton administration still is Europe-focused despite occasional forays into the Pacific by top officials.

A major factor in economics is comparative advantage. China's comparative advantage is the best cheap labor force in the world.

We in Hawaii badly need to figure out our own comparative advantages in dealing with globalism developing around us so very rapidly.