Food prices will rise 2.5 percent to 3 percent this year, down from last year's 3.3 percent pace, as grain prices decline from last year's near-record levels while transportation, processing and marketing costs remain stable, the department said today.

"Meat and dairy product prices will restrain food prices," said Keith Collins, the USDA's chief economist, in remarks prepared for the opening session of the department's annual outlook conference. "Consumers will see a year of modest food price inflation in 1997."

That will keep food prices in line with "a long-term trend of food prices rising at slightly less than the general inflation rate," the USDA forecast said.

Food price inflation last year matched the 3.3 percent rise in the overall consumer price index. That was the largest jump in food prices since 1990, when prices surged 5.8 percent.

Consumers will pay less in 1997 for pork, poultry, eggs, dairy products, cooking oils, fresh fruits and sugar and sweets. Shoppers are likely to pay higher prices for beef, veal, fresh vegetables, and fish and seafood, said USDA food-price analyst Annette L. Clauson.

Over the next 10 years, the USDA said food prices are projected to "rise moderately," averaging 2.4 percent each year. Food prices are forecast to increase by 1.7 percent in 1998 and 2.8 percent in 1999.