Hawaii’s World

By A.A. Smyser

Thursday, February 6, 1997

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Scowcroft’s views
on security problems

FOR four years Brent Scowcroft was national security adviser to President George Bush. Recently he sat at a board of directors table in the downtown Honolulu building that headquarters Pacific Forum/CSIS. This is a Honolulu think tank he chairs as one of a number of continuing foreign policy activities.

He offered the kind of security sizeup that might have been heard at the first meeting of President Clinton's National Security Council under the new adviser, Sandy Berger, whom Scowcroft highly praises.

Round-the-world in an hour is a pretty fast trip but it gave a fascinated audience a glimpse of the diversity, sensitivity, immensity and complexity of foreign policy issues facing our national leaders.

Here's an even faster look at highlights from his summary:

The Cold War was key to our problems in the past. That main focus no longer exists.

Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula. A high potential crisis area with no one sure what is going on in North Korea. Planned four-power talks with the U.S., China and both Koreas hold the danger of forcing us to take sides against China.

Japan. An improved relationship. The Japanese "ate our lunch" when we adopted a policy of trade confrontation in Clinton's first term, but Japan has had a humbling experience with its economy. For the Liberal Democratic Party to re-emerge as the ruling party would be good for U.S.-Japan relations but not necessarily best for Japan.

China. Relations have improved here, too. We should seek a world-girdling strategic dialogue with the Chinese on the assumption they won't be aggressive like the Nazis or the Soviet Union. President Clinton may want to seek repeal of the most-favored-nations trade law that ties trade to human rights. China's good intentions may not be enough when Hong Kong reverts. Our "One China" agreement over Taiwan should be better understood. It could be a terrible problem if Taiwan makes mistakes. The U.S.-Japan security pact serves China's interest by making it unnecessary for Japan to build major military forces.

India-Russia relations bear watching. We should support continued independence for the former U.S.S.R. nations in central Asia.

Persian Gulf. We support an Iran-Iraq balance of power. Both countries may get more difficult. Our sanctions are no good if others don't join us.

Turkey. A strategic crossroads. One of the most important countries in the world for the U.S. Fundamentalists pose a worrisome threat to its democracy.

Palestine and Israel. The Palestinians have their cities back now that they have Hebron. Returning non-urban lands will be the next peace step.

Russia. Its nuclear weapons remain a key concern.

Europe. Sourness has entered our dealings. NATO guarantees an American presence in Europe. It could be emasculated by expanding it in ways meant to placate Russia.

Latin America. Its turn has come to share more freely in U.S. trade. Cuba needs a new look.

Finally, the key role of President Clinton. With election-weakened foreign policy leadership in Congress, much will depend on the president to promote unpopular positions that are in the national interest.