Produced for the World Travel & Tourism Council, the report puts Hawaii's tourism growth at a rate of 2.1 percent a year through 2007, a total growth of 23.1 percent.
Worldwide growth in the economic impact of tourism through the same period is expected to be 42.3 percent and in the Caribbean, tourism's contribution to the economy should grow 65.8 percent in 10 years, the report said.
Prepared by the WEFA Group Inc., an international economic consulting and forecasting firm, the report made Hawaii part of a global study. This year, for the second time in a row, the Hawaii numbers were pulled out and interpreted because of sponsorship by several dozen businesses in Hawaii tourism.
One sponsor, Outrigger Hotels & Resorts Chairman Richard Kelley, said the report shows that Hawaii has some catching up to do.
"Considering that we are still below employment and gross output levels posted in the peak days of 1991, a projected future growth rate roughly half the world standard and one-third of our major competitor's (the Caribbean), is cause for concern," Kelley said.
The report concluded that travel and tourism to Hawaii will produce $9.1 billion in gross state product in 1997, 24.4 percent of an anticipated total GSP of $37.3 billion. (Gross state product is the total value of goods and services produced in the state.)
But the WEFA Group says does not apply the so-called "multiplier effect" to tourism spending. That effect is based on the fact that dollars brought in by tourists circulate through the economy, going to employees, vendors and others touched by the industry and from there on to others. WEFA said there is no way to measure that effect with any accuracy.
"The precise multiplier is still debatable," Kelley said. "But it is generally accepted to be about one to one, which means, in all our probability, nearly half our economy and two-thirds of our jobs are dependent on the health of the visitor industry."
Despite its dependence on tourism, WEFA said, Hawaii lags in government spending to boost the industry.
The report said worldwide tourism and travel will generate $716 billion in taxes this year, 10.4 percent of the worldwide total tax generation, while receiving $296 billion in government expenditures, 6.4 percent of the total.
"In the Caribbean, the industry will generate $8.4 billion in taxes (29.8 percent of total), while receiving $2.3 billion in government expenditures (19.7 percent of total)," the report said. "Taxes from travel and tourism in Hawaii are expected to total $1.9 billion (25 percent of total), while it expects to receive $597 million (6 percent of total) in government operating expenses."
The report was to be presented at a visitor industry meeting in Waikiki this morning.