And the Hawaii Visitors and Convention Bureau, which made the preliminary estimate, said today it expects visitor arrivals to pass the 7 million a year mark in 1997 to set a record.

But the fact that all of the expected increase this year will come from one market, Japan, has some tourist industry executives worried, said HVCB President Paul Casey.

Although a year-end travel industry survey shows the Japan market rising 4 to 6 percent this year, there are some important factors that could change that, Casey said.

"We're still hoping for record-breaking Japanese arrivals in 1997, but as the Japanese market matures and competition for it increases, we can expect to see a leveling off of growth rates," Casey said. He said many tourism officials are concerned about Hawaii's dependence on that one market in the face of flat business from the mainland.

And the Japanese business could be hurt by the recent drop in the yen's buying power in America, higher tour prices and reports of increasing crime against visitors to Hawaii, Casey said.

"Because the mainland has been so slow, we've been putting a lot of eggs in one basket and now we have to wonder if that Japanese basket isn't becoming too fragile to see us through another year," he said.

Arrivals from the mainland are expected to remain flat, in a range of plus or minus 1 percent from 1995. That means a repeat of last year's 3.3 million mainlanders, which is still 18 percent less than 1989, the best year for mainland traffic when Hawaii attracted almost 4 million mainlanders.

That leaves Hawaii relying on Japan to make up the numbers that are expected to increase overall Hawaii tourism by 2 to 4 percent this year.

Last year, an estimated 2.13 million people came to the islands from Japan, a record level that was 6.5 percent higher than the 1995 figure, the HVCB said. Japanese agents expect the number to rise to about 2.2 million this year.

The HVCB based its Japan predictions on a year-end survey of 50 travel agencies and tour wholesalers in Japan.

HVCB marketers say the Japanese are being wooed vigorously by other tourist destinations, such as Australia, Korea, Hong Kong and Guam.

Casey said the fact that Hawaii does not currently have a brand-image advertising presence in Japan also makes it harder to maintain market growth.

For its westbound travel prediction, the HVCB surveyed 240 retail travel agents on the mainland another 60 in Canada.

Early last year, the HVCB had predicted a 1 to 3 percent overall increase in 1996 tourism with the Japan segment rising 6 to 8 percent.