EVANDER Holyfield has guaranteed that he will defeat Mike Tyson tomorrow.In chess? Probably. Basketball? Yeah. Bible study? Holyfield is a lock. Professional prizefighting?
Forget about it.
Five years ago, when the match originally was scheduled, this might have been a decent fight. Even then, Tyson likely would have knocked out the bulked-up light heavyweight.
This current fight has been made into a Good vs. Evil match and, as usual, Don King and the Las Vegas casinos are reeling in enough suckers to fill Lake Mead.
The odds on the fight five years ago had Tyson as a 2-1 favorite. Now the line is 11-1 for Tyson, although it has dropped from as high as 25-1 a month ago - which means a ton of late money is on Holyfield.
But this betting statistic is a little more telling: It's even-money for Holyfield to survive three rounds. And here's a fact that should not be forgotten: Tyson has knocked out 39 of the 46 men he has faced in the ring. His only loss was a fluke to Buster Douglas, when Tyson trained mostly on alcohol and prostitutes.
HOLYFIELD (32-3) used to be an outstanding boxer and a very brave one. His three matches against a bigger and stronger Riddick Bowe showed that he has tremendous courage and can take a punch. But he also has been defeated in two of his last three fights - and he looked old and slow in his most recent loss to Michael Moorer.
Plus, there is this intangible: Tyson hates Holyfield and what he stands for. This isn't the challenger's fault. While Tyson sat in prison for four years, Holyfield and a few others cleaned up against the weaker field. So, in Tyson's twisted logic, Holyfield was "stealing" his money and glory while he sat in prison.
Also, Holyfield has always been a devout Christian and even his handlers and promoters were clean. Tyson, on the other hand, went straight downhill away from the ring after hooking up with King and his court jesters.
Technically, Holyfield has little choice. He has to run for his life in the first four or five rounds and hope that Tyson gets frustrated and maybe a bit arm weary.
Even this strategy will require surviving several big blows, which Holyfield could do five years ago, but probably not today.
If, by some miracle, the fight gets into the later rounds, Holyfield has a chance for a decision - especially from judges who would lean his way. But if Holyfield slugs it out with Tyson, which he says he will do, here's what will happen:
T-I-M-B-E-R!
And, on a more serious note, if Holyfield successfully hid a heart condition for this fight, his life could be in danger from Tyson's vicious body shots.
HERE'S what is likely to happen: Holyfield's strategy, despite his prefight bravado, will be to stay away from Tyson in the first four rounds. He is too smart to plan otherwise.
And another difference between Holyfield and the four bums that Tyson has fought since getting out of the slammer is that Holyfield won't be intimidated before the opening bell.
Those four stooges looked as if they had seen a ghost while being dragged into the ring.
But will Holyfield stick to his runaway strategy after taking a few shots? I doubt it.
So why have so many gamblers bet on Holyfield in the past month or so? Well, here's a Las Vegas tip that a sportswriter friend once told me on my first trip to Sin City.
We were playing blackjack at the Stardust and I hit a 16. Naturally, I busted and screwed up everybody else's hand at the table. I turned to my mentor and said: "But Frank, I had a feeling." He pointed to the ceiling and said: "You see all of those chandeliers up there? They were paid for by people who had a feeling."
I'll take Tyson over Holyfield tomorrow by knockout.
In the first round.