Carlisle leads tight
prosecutor campaign

But the race is a virtual tie as the
candidates head into election week

By Rod Ohira
Star-Bulletin

---

The poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points makes the race a virtual tie at the moment, as they head into the Sept. 21 election.

Peter Carlisle, with 29 percent, leads the pack. David Arakawa, with 27 percent, has nearly doubled his support since July, when only 14 percent indicated they would vote for him. Randal Yoshida had 26 percent in the latest poll.

Media Research Inc. of Columbia, Md., from Sept. 7-10. The July poll also had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The percentage of undecided voters, which was 43 percent in July, has dropped to 18 percent, leaving it unlikely that any candidate will garner the necessary 50 percent plus one vote to be elected Sept. 21. If there is no outright winner, a runoff election between the top two finishers will be held in November.

Forty-nine percent of those polled could not find major differences among the three candidates.

"None of them (has) held the office before, so you're really voting blind," said Robert Kan, a 48-year-old heavy-equipment mechanic from Kalihi. "All I'm hearing is heavy political stuff.

"I'm undecided," he added. "I'm looking for somebody with a little integrity, someone who can make me feel he can be trusted."

Integrity topped the list when respondents were asked to rate the most important attributes of a prosecutor.

The ability to work with others was a close second.

Self-employed printer Craig Pung, 46, of Hawaii Kai, is having difficulty singling out one candidate from the pack.

"There's not much of a difference between them," Pung said. "I haven't heard or seen anything in the last six months that would influence my vote."

The campaign, however, is expected to heat up in the final week and could turn nasty.

That is already happening, Carlisle said.

"My impression is that the people who didn't debate were dealt a serious blow by their miscalculation," said Carlisle, referring to a scheduled television debate that was canceled this week after Yoshida and Arakawa pulled out. "To make up ground, they are sinking to a lower level."

Yoshida is anticipating fire from Arakawa's camp.

"There's no question in my mind that the supporters of one of my opponents are going to try and smear me with false information," Yoshida said. "They did it to Charles Marsland eight years ago and to me in 1992."

Grass-roots work is responsible for his gains, Arakawa said.

"(Outgoing prosecutor) Keith Kaneshiro's endorsement carries a lot of weight and gives us a big boost heading into the final week," Arakawa said.

More respondents had favorable rather than unfavorable opinions of the candidates.

In Yoshida's case, however, the difference was much closer, as 27 percent had a favorable opinion of him and 12 percent unfavorable.

"That tells me my votes are hard, either they like me or they don't," Yoshida said. "They have an opinion of me because I'm the only candidate with an extensive record in public service."

The prosecutor's race is nonpartisan, but the survey showed Carlisle had strong support among Republicans and Arakawa had strong support among Democrats. Yoshida was more popular with Republicans than Democrats.

In terms of ethnicity, Caucasian voters strongly favored Carlisle, while Japanese voters said they were more likely to support either Arakawa or Yoshida.

Carlisle's appeal was strongest among voters 35 years and older and those with annual incomes of more than $40,000.

Arakawa was popular among voters between ages 35 and 54 and those with annual incomes of less than $25,000.

Yoshida fared well with voters who were 55 years and older and had incomes of more than $70,000.