Leroy Laney
Japan Airlines flights direct to Kona and direct Korean Air flights expected to start in January will help the Big Island economy recover, Laney told the Hawaii Island Chamber of Commerce yesterday in his annual economic forecast for the island.."I think the worst is over and recovery lies ahead for the Big Island economy," he said.
"There is no doubt that the tourism-centered economy of west Hawaii propels it toward faster relative growth (than east Hawaii)," he said.
That economy is increasingly dependent on Asian visitors, whose numbers will pass those of Mainland visitors within a few years, he predicted.
"First-time Japanese tourists tend to be less independent, and less compatible than western travelers with the Big Island's wide open space," Laney said.
"Shopping (for Japanese travelers) is often more important than nature, culture, health and fitness, or other aspects in which the Big Island has a natural comparative advantage."
The move to big stores matches Asian interests, he said. "On balance, the transformation of the retail scene is a positive trend , not just because of more local consumer choice but also because the new retail outlets are a prime tourist draw for Asian visitors."
"And this is where the big sales are in Hawaii retailing nowadays," he said.
While the Big Island economy is starting to grow, it continues to lose jobs, he said. That's because many businesses have become more efficient without reaching a readiness to rehire people.
The number of government jobs on the island is also declining, he said.
By contrast, hotel and agriculture jobs are increasing. "County farm payrolls have grown much faster than the rest of the state ... and these don't even include self-employed farmers," he said.
The gap between rich and poor is also growing, he said. From 1990 to 1994, the state lost 38,000 people, many who left because their well-paying jobs disappeared. During the same time, the state gained 33,000 people, many taking low-paying jobs, he said.
And on the Big Island, with the biggest percentage of welfare recipients in the state, welfare reform could cause more problems.
"It's not likely that kind of situation is going to play very well in an economy that's losing jobs," he said. "I worry about that some. It could be a very serious thing."