That Harris drew 55 percent support is significant. If a candidate collects more than 50 percent of the vote in the Sept. 21 mayoral special election, that candidate would become mayor.
If no candidate gets the "50 percent plus 1 vote" number, however, a runoff would be held Nov. 5. Morgado supporters acknowledge that their candidate is running second and are banking on a runoff to buy more time to change the tide.
The poll results are bad news for former Mayor Fasi. The 11 percent support he collected is consistent with poll results divulged by the Morgado and Harris camps last month.
It shows Fasi has a lot of ground to make up just to pass Morgado to get into a runoff with Harris, his former managing director. Morgado drew support from 21 percent of those polled.
"The figures show that we've built a broad base of support among Oahu's people, and that they want us to continue the work that we've been doing," Harris said.
But Morgado campaign co-chairman Bill Meheula was undaunted. "The poll numbers will change as the public becomes educated on the true condition of the city," Meheula said. "The voters do not yet know the true condition of the city because of erroneous statements by the Harris administration and a failure to disclose those conditions."
Neither Fasi nor campaign aide Gina Fasi responded to numerous calls regarding the poll.
Demographically, Harris won nearly every category:
Party affiliation: Although this race is nonpartisan, Morgado and Harris are Democrats while Fasi has been both a Democrat and Republican and is now a declared Independent.
In keeping with that, Morgado did slightly better among those who identify themselves with Democrats, getting 25 percent support to Harris' 50 percent. Fasi got 12 percent.
That kink in Democratic support for Harris, however, was more than topped by his surprisingly strong showing among Republicans. He gets 65 percent of the vote among those with GOP leanings to Morgado's 18 percent and Fasi's 12 percent.
Cayetano factor: Democratic Gov. Ben Cayetano has endorsed Morgado.Yet, among those who voted for Cayetano in 1994, Harris got 60 percent support to 25 percent for Morgado. No one who supported Cayetano two years ago now supports Fasi.
Cayetano bested Fasi and Republican Patricia Saiki two years ago, winning with roughly a third of the vote.
Even those polled who voted for Fasi in 1994 picked Harris over him in the poll by a small margin - 34 percent to 29 percent. Morgado got 17 percent among 1994 Fasi voters, indicating he'll have a hard time wooing away votes from the former mayor's camp although 20 percent remained undecided.
Of those who supported Saiki in 1994, 71 percent supported Harris, 19 percent Morgado and 4 percent Fasi.
Gender: Women tended to pick Harris over his rivals. Harris got 62 percent to Morgado's 18 percent and Fasi's 6 percent. Men had a slightly higher tendency to vote for Morgado and Fasi than women. Harris had 48 percent of the men's vote to Morgado's 23 percent and Fasi's 15 percent.
Race/Ethnicity: Morgado did much better among voters of Japanese descent than other groups, but Harris still got more than half the vote - Harris received 50 percent, Morgado 39 percent and Fasi none. Fasi did better among Caucasians at the expense of both opponents but Harris still came out ahead easily - Harris with 49 percent, Fasi with 16 percent and Morgado with 15 percent.
Income: Lower-income groups tended to favor Morgado over Harris and Fasi while Harris did better in higher-income brackets.
For instance, among those making between $25,000 and $39,999, Harris had 46 percent to Morgado's 26 percent and Fasi's 12 percent. By contrast, among those earning $40,000 to $69,999, 72 percent were for Harris, 12 percent for Fasi and 5 percent for Morgado.
Renters vs. Homeowners: Homeowners overwhelmingly supported Harris. Harris got 62 percent support, Morgado 20 percent and Fasi 8 percent. Of renters, 39 percent supported Harris, 23 percent Morgado and 16 percent Fasi. A hefty 22 percent of renters were undecided.
Age: Harris received more than 50 percent support in each age category.
The poll was conducted July 11-15 by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research of Columbia, Md., which sampled 482 Oahu registered voters through telephone interviews. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
