Editorials

Tuesday, April 23, 1996


Concern shrinks over
balanced budget


PUBLIC concern over persistently huge federal budget deficits and the mounting national debt fueled Ross Perot's entry into the 1992 presidential campaign. It also was a factor in the Republican congressional victories in 1994. But attempts to pass a balanced-budget amendment have foundered, and the campaign has lost momentum. And while Perot is hinting that he may run again, he isn't likely to be as serious a threat as he was four years ago.

There's a reason. The budget deficits have been shrinking. That makes it harder to get people worked up over the issue.

The deficit set an all-time record in dollar terms in 1992, when it reached $290.4 billion, 4.9 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). It fell in 1993, President Bush's last budget year, to $255.1 billion, 4.1 percent of GDP. And it has fallen in President Clinton's first two budget years, in 1994 to $203.1 billion, 3.1 percent of GDP, and in 1995 to $163.9 billion, 2.3 percent of GDP.

The Congressional Budget Office projects a fiscal 1996 deficit of $140 billion. This would be the lowest in dollar terms since President Reagan's first deficit in 1982 - $128 billion.

But if you measure the preferred way - against the size of the economy, or GDP, the 1996 deficit would be the lowest since 1979, when President Carter's deficit was 1.7 percent of GDP. The forecast for 1996 would be equivalent to 1.9 percent of GDP.

Moreover, the dollar deficit will have dropped four years in a row. It would be the first time that happened since the five years of declining deficits and increasing surpluses in 1944-48 under Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman.

While Clinton and the Republican congressional leaders continue to wrangle over how to reach a balanced budget in seven years, the problem has lost much of its urgency. The U.S. today has smaller deficits relative to the size of the economy than other industrial nations. Although it would be desirable to shrink the deficits further, achieving balanced budgets soon is not the imperative that it is sometimes made out to be.

The economic recovery that began in the last year of the Bush presidency and has continued under Clinton has helped deficit reduction by boosting tax revenues. Another factor was the tapering off of the savings and loan bailout.

More controversial explanations are Bush's 1990 budget deal and Clinton's 1993 budget package. Both raised taxes, which was anathema to conservatives. But with the deficit shrinking, Clinton is claiming credit, and the voters may give him some.

Whatever happens to the economy, it seems clear that balancing the budget will not be a major issue this year. With the deficit smaller, the voters are focusing on other concerns.



Other editorials, in brief:

Lowering School Age

LEGISLATORS have found a sensible alternative to lowering the age of compulsory school attendance.

Rather than lower the age from 18 to 16, a conference meeting approved the idea of having principals identify misbehaving minors, then work with parents to create educational programs for them.

Threats to Society

SOMETIMES the legal system must allow people who are threats to society to be free until they commit a crime.

They may be regarded as atrocities waiting to happen, but little can be done except to be wary. That is the case of convicted child molester Leroy Hendricks in Kansas. Having served his time, Hendricks should be released, but watched closely.






Published by Liberty Newspapers Limited Partnership

Rupert E. Phillips,CEO

John M. Flanagan,Editor & Publisher

David Shapiro,Managing Editor

Diane Yukihiro Chang,Senior Editor & Editorial Page Editor

Frank Bridgewater & Michael Rovner,Assistant Managing Editors

A.A. Smyser,Contributing Editor




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