The 10-day holiday period that begins April 27 will still be big, but costs, timing and greater awareness apparently are leading many Japanese to book dates outside the peak period.
"Japanese are getting a little wiser," said Gilbert Kimura, a spokesman for Japan Airlines in Honolulu.
Because business during Golden Week traditionally is very strong, airlines charge higher fares for the period, Kimura said. Package tour prices also rise, he said.
"In the past, Japanese didn't take vacations," he said. Most of their travel would be done in holiday periods such as New Year's or Golden Week. Now their government and their employers are encouraging them to take vacations.
Kimura said Japanese travelers know that they can get cheaper deals outside the peak periods, when travel also is more comfortable because it is less crowded, but reservations are not as strong as they were last year.
Kazuhiko Shiraya of VITA U.S.A., a partnership of two major Japanese package tour wholesalers, said, "What I understand at this moment is that Golden Week is rather slow, very slow comparing from previous years.
"Other wholesalers also say it is slow," he said. "The selling price in Japan might be much much higher than other, lower, periods."
Today, many young Japanese travel and families make up a big share of the business. "People know that the tour price for this year for Golden Week is very expensive," Shiraya said.
"People can take vacations any time," he said, and they will try to do so when costs are lower.
But the crowds will still be there, the travel officials said. Japan Travel Bureau Inc. did a survey in March that showed 66,000 Japanese are likely to visit Hawaii during Golden Week, making it their favorite destination outside of Japan. The travel agency said that would be an increase of just over 1 percent from 60,000 last year.
That was a month ago, however, and the travel executives in Honolulu now say that either bookings are running very late, which has been a trend in Japan, or business is down.
JAL had planned two or three extra flights a day but as the time nears, has been cutting them to match real bookings, Kimura said.
"It still looks good but only a little bit better than last year," said Keith Vieira, vice president and director of marketing for the Sheraton hotels.
"Also the air fare for that week is pretty high." What that does, Vieira said, is increase demand in the period before and after the peak holiday stretch.
VITA U.S.A.'s Shiraya said that the numbers always rise in the week after Golden Week and the week after the New Year's peak, when costs are lower.
The Japanese also are canny about how they spend their money, Shiraya said.
"There are still lots of young ladies I see shopping the famous boutique stores along Kalakaua Avenue. Apparently those young ladies have purchasing power. But I also see the young ladies coming out of McDonald's or Burger King or MOS Burger (a Japanese owned fast food outlet) or leaving an ABC store with a package of musubi."